Left In Alabama
campaign spending

Dollars per Vote, Dollars per Delegate, New Hampshire Edition

by: herding old cats

Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 23:33:56 PM CST

 Now the New Hampshire primary has come and gone.

The vote totals, from CNN were:

93,617 for Obama

100,541 for Clinton

43,432 for Edwards

11,735 for Richardson

67,749 for Romney

79,350 for McCain

18,413 for Giuliani

16,361 for Paul

23,811 for Huckabee

These are totals with 89% of precincts reporting for both sides - I gotta get up in the morning.  I'll leave the effect of the last 11% to all you political hoot owls. The delegate count used in the calculations below matches CNN's figures.

On the Democratic side, delegates are awarded proportionally with a minimum requirement of 15% to get delegates.  On the Republican side, the delegates are awarded proportionally with a minimum requirement of 10%. New Hampshire has 22 pledged Democratic delegates and 12 pledged Republican delegates.

From Graniteprof, here is what the candidates have spent on TV ads:

Obama: $2.1 million

Hillary Clinton: $1.65 million

John Edwards: $1.2 million

Bill Richardson: $700,000

Mitt Romney: $3.9 million 

 John McCain: $1.1 million

Rudy Giuliani: Just under $1 million

Ron Paul: $270,000

Mike Huckabee: $160,000

Caveat: These are TV ads on WMUR, the only commercial station in New Hampshire with statewide reach.  Part of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market, but I could not find expenditures by the campaigns on Boston stations. These amounts represent only the supposedly less expensive all-New-Hampshire market.  That should make them all apples to apples comparisons, anyway.

 So, we crunch the numbers and we get:

Obama spent $22.43 per vote, Clinton spent $16.41 per vote, Edwards spent $27.63 per vote, and Richardson spent $59.65 per vote. For each delegate, Obama spent $233K, Clinton spent $183K, and Edwards spent $300K.  It looks like Richardson did not get any delegates.

Romney spent $57.75 per vote, McCain spent $13.86 per vote, Giuliani spent $54.31 per vote, Paul spent $16.50 per vote, and Huckabee spent $6.72 per vote.  For each delegate, Romney spent $975K, McCain spent $157K and Huckabee spent $160K.  Giuliani and Paul did not get any delegates.

Of the candidates who did manage to get delegates, Romney is clearly getting the least bang for his megabucks, by quite a margin.  He might as well stand in the median of I-89 burning $50 bills.

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

Well, the Iowa caucus of 2008 has come and gone.

by: herding old cats

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 22:37:27 PM CST

On the Democratic side, total turnout was 239,000. Barack Obama got 38% of the votes which would be 90,820, John Edwards got 30% which would be 71,700, and Hillary Clinton got 29% which would be 69,310.   Republican turnout was estimated at 114,000.  If that is correct, then Huckabee got 38,760 votes, Romney got 28,500, and Thompson got about 14,820.

Now, what did it take for Obama to get his 90,820 votes, Edwards his 71,700 votes, and Clinton her 69,310 votes?  For the candidates,it took lots of wear and tear on the vocal cords, lots of travel, lots of walking through cafe's interrupting people's meals, and lots of being "on" no matter how exhausted and footsore one might be.  Behind the scenes, there are of course paid staff, yard signs, offices, supplies, and a whole logistical tail.  But above and beyond the support costs and direct costs to get the candidate face-to-face with people, there is advertising, which happens to be something we can find out.

I poked around a little bit with good ol' Google and dug this up.  Obama spent  $9 million on about 11000 ad spots.  Edwards spent $3.2 million on 3700 ads.
Clinton spent about $7.2 million on  about  8000 TV ads.  Huckabee spent $1.4 million on 1800 ads.  Romney spent $7 million for 8500 ads. Thompson spent $1.1 million for 1100 ads.

So, in advertising costs alone, Obama spent about $99 per vote.  Edwards spent about $45 per vote.  Clinton spent about $104 per vote. Huckabee spent about $36 per vote.  Romney spent about $246 per vote. Thompson spent about $74 per vote.

More fun with a calculator - Obama got 8.26 votes per ad.  Edwards got 19.38 votes per ad.  Clinton got 8.66 votes per ad.  Huckabee got 21.53 votes per ad.  Romney got 3.35 votes per ad.  Thompson got 13.47 votes per ad.

Both Edwards and Huckabee said at different times, "This is an election, not an auction!"  The results seem to bear this out.  Romney would have done better to stand in the median of I-80 burning $20 bills.  Romney, Obama, and Clinton need to re-think their ad agency, as well.

Aren't metrics fun? 

Discuss :: (3 Comments)
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