He's a (black) friend I haven't seen since middle school, but he heard I was looking for New Hampshire first-hand stories. He wrote this to me on Monday, before the vote (and before the tears). There is some incredibly accurate analysis which challenges the mainstream media narrative and some of the conclusions drawn by this blog; there is also just plain interesting observation. I have made bold certain sections for emphasis and removed peoples' last names. Otherwise, these are his words.
These are totals with 89% of precincts reporting for both sides - I gotta get up in the morning. I'll leave the effect of the last 11% to all you political hoot owls. The delegate count used in the calculations below matches CNN's figures.
On the Democratic side, delegates are awarded proportionally with a minimum requirement of 15% to get delegates. On the Republican side, the delegates are awarded proportionally with a minimum requirement of 10%. New Hampshire has 22 pledged Democratic delegates and 12 pledged Republican delegates.
From Graniteprof, here is what the candidates have spent on TV ads:
Obama: $2.1 million
Hillary Clinton: $1.65 million
John Edwards: $1.2 million
Bill Richardson: $700,000
Mitt Romney: $3.9 million
John McCain: $1.1 million
Rudy Giuliani: Just under $1 million
Ron Paul: $270,000
Mike Huckabee: $160,000
Caveat: These are TV ads on WMUR, the only commercial station in New Hampshire with statewide reach. Part of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market, but I could not find expenditures by the campaigns on Boston stations. These amounts represent only the supposedly less expensive all-New-Hampshire market. That should make them all apples to apples comparisons, anyway.
So, we crunch the numbers and we get:
Obama spent $22.43 per vote, Clinton spent $16.41 per vote, Edwards spent $27.63 per vote, and Richardson spent $59.65 per vote. For each delegate, Obama spent $233K, Clinton spent $183K, and Edwards spent $300K. It looks like Richardson did not get any delegates.
Romney spent $57.75 per vote, McCain spent $13.86 per vote, Giuliani spent $54.31 per vote, Paul spent $16.50 per vote, and Huckabee spent $6.72 per vote. For each delegate, Romney spent $975K, McCain spent $157K and Huckabee spent $160K. Giuliani and Paul did not get any delegates.
Of the candidates who did manage to get delegates, Romney is clearly getting the least bang for his megabucks, by quite a margin. He might as well stand in the median of I-89 burning $50 bills.
In case you aren't doing anything important this evening, the New Hampshire Democratic Debate will be on ABC, starting around 7:45 pm. The Republicans are up now.
December 4, 2007 - Des Moines, IA, NPR News/Iowa Public Radio Debate December 13, 2007 - Johnston, Iowa, Des Moines Register Democratic Debate
December 17, 2007 - Boston, MA
January 15, 2008 - Las Vegas, Nevada
September 9, 2007 - Univision Forum (Spanish)
September 26, 2007 - Hanover, New Hampshire
October 30, 2007 - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
November 15, 2007 - Las Vegas, Nevada
December 10, 2007 - Los Angeles, California
January 6, 2008 - Johnson County, Iowa
January 15, 2008 - Las Vegas, Nevada
January 31, 2008 - California
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