In the discussion on this recent diary, bluebearcat made reference to the Presidential election results in Alabama Congressional districts. I think this is worth another look by the folks here. The data is via Swing State Project and they have it for every district in the country.
State ?
CD
Member
Party
Obama
McCain
Kerry
Bush '04
Gore
Bush '00
AL
2
Bright
(D)
36
63
33
67
38
61
AL
1
Bonner
(R)
39
61
35
64
38
60
AL
4
Aderholt
(R)
23
76
28
71
37
61
AL
5
Griffith
(D)
38
61
39
60
44
54
AL
6
Bachus
(R)
23
76
22
78
25
74
AL
3
Rogers
(R)
43
56
41
58
47
52
AL
7
Davis
(D)
72
27
64
35
66
33
Notice that Barack Obama did better than John Kerry in AL-01, AL-02, AL-03, AL-06 and AL-07. In AL-05 he performed virtually the same as Kerry. Obama was 5 points below Kerry's mark in AL-04. Last time I looked John Kerry was white. Looking at this, I find it very hard to believe that Obama lost Alabama primarily because of his skin color. I think it had more to do with the fact that he was another Democrat who was a virtual stranger to the voters here.
Just to add spice to the argument I refer you to the 2004 CNN exit poll for Alabama which showed John Kerry winning 19% of the white vote in Alabama and 91% of the black vote.
I'm getting a little attack of deja vu these days. From 1992, when Bill Clinton was President-Elect. He ran on "It's the economy, stupid!" and "Don't forget health care!"
Back then, I used to share the Wall Street Journal with a co-worker each day. One day, he paid 75 cents; the next day, I paid 75 cents. I soon learned how much BS you can read for only 75 cents. This is my memory of what was being printed in the WSJ and other conservative outlets - basically, that Bill Clinton, and everyone who voted for him, had to be crushed at all costs.
Follow me across the fold to see how you, too, can view massive quantities of BS at bargain prices...
"I'd never seen anything like that ad. Putting pictures of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden next to the picture of a man who left three limbs on the battlefield -- it's worse than disgraceful. It's reprehensible."
A year or so ago at a forum on Alabama politics, State Rep. Randy Hinshaw expressed concern that the Democratic party would craft a new path to majority status, and that the South would be left off it. Adam Nossiter in the New York Times posits that the South is losing relevance and influence on national politics after Southern white voters soundly rejected Barack Obama last Tuesday.
Southern counties that voted more heavily Republican this year than in 2004 tended to be poorer, less educated and whiter, a statistical analysis by The New York Times shows. Mr. Obama won in only 44 counties in the Appalachian belt, a stretch of 410 counties that runs from New York to Mississippi. Many of those counties, rural and isolated, have been less exposed to the diversity, educational achievement and economic progress experienced by more prosperous areas.
...
That could spell the end of the so-called Southern strategy, the doctrine that took shape under President Richard M. Nixon in which national elections were won by co-opting Southern whites on racial issues. And the Southernization of American politics — which reached its apogee in the 1990s when many Congressional leaders and President Bill Clinton were from the South — appears to have ended.
“I think that’s absolutely over,” said Thomas Schaller, a political scientist who argued prophetically that the Democrats could win national elections without the South.
The Republicans, meanwhile, have “become a Southernized party,” said Mr. Schaller, who teaches at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. “They have completely marginalized themselves to a mostly regional party,” he said, pointing out that nearly half of the current Republican House delegation is now Southern.
Merle Black, an expert on the region’s politics at Emory University in Atlanta, said the Republican Party went too far in appealing to the South, alienating voters elsewhere.
“They’ve maxed out on the South,” he said, which has “limited their appeal in the rest of the country.”
Have Democrats lost Appalachia for good or will these voters look at the kind of job President Obama does and give us another chance next time around?
I'd love to see polling like this for Alabama, but I'm pretty sure that the GOP powers-that-be such as Bob Riley and Mike Hubbard are convinced that they lost two out of three competetive House races because they weren't far enough to the right. They still believe America is a center-right nation which I think is a crock. This is from the chart presentation, downloadable at the link above.
A couple of weeks ago BenGoshi pointed out that Bill Maher had named Tuscaloosa, Alabama as the least likely place in America to vote for Barack Obama.
I hope that the Tuscaloosa County Democratic Party will, in 1 and 1/2 weeks, be able and inclined to touch base with Mr. Maher, show him the voting totals and note that, indeed, it's not the racist place Maher implies it is.
The challenge has been made. It's not the time to tell Maher what an uninformed putz he is, it's time to work to make sure he's proved wrong on November 4.
The election is behind us and Tommy Stevenson wasted little time in pointing out that, although Tuscaloosa County went for McCain, the city of Tuscaloosa was a little piece of Obamaland on Nov. 4th.
Now it is true that Republican John McCain carried Tuscaloosa County 55.5 percent to 44.4 percent, but within the city limits of Tuscaloosa, which is a majority white city and the home of the University of Alabama (whose Crimson Tide football team is ranked number one in the country, in case you haven't noticed), Democrat Obama had approximately 26,000 votes to about 15,600 for McCain. The countywide vote was 45,351 for McCain and 32,738 for Obama.
I like Bill Maher, but he owes Tuscaloosa an apology this time. Maher's comment played to the stereotype that folks in Alabama are nothing but uneducated rednecks who would never vote for a black man. Not true. We're a diverse bunch down here, so please stop trying to paint Alabama with a broad brush, Bill.
David Prather of the Huntsville Timesmakes much of the 10,200 voters in Alabama's 5th Congressional district who declined to vote for either Parker Griffith (winner) or Wayne Parker (not). In America, votes decide elections. If you can't decide how to vote in a particular election other voters will happily make the decision for you. Prather neglects to mention that the Huntsville Times editorial board set a precedent of indecision when they were unable, or unwilling, to make an endorsement in this race. If these professionals who had the luxury of face to face interviews with both candidates couldn't summon the intestinal fortitude to pick one, why are they surprised that so many voters followed their lead?
The other thing that bothers me about this piece is that Griffith seems to get the blame for the negative campaigning.
Still, based on a mountain of anecdotal evidence ranging from letters to the editor to water-cooler chitchat to informal conversations, the negativity of the congressional campaign was more than many voters could stomach. That should give Griffith pause.
Did I miss something here? I don't recall Griffith as the mudslinger in this race ... more like the guy having everything plus the kitchen sink thrown at him by the Republicans and their independent group allies.
I guess it's now safe to believe that we have elected a Democratic President in America. For the last three nights Barack Obama has been President-elect when I went to bed and still President-elect when I got up the next morning. Honestly, the first night I didn't sleep much for worrying that the victory would be snatched away in the wee hours, again. I'm sleeping a lot better now. Obama held his first press conference today and has started assembling his cabinet --- and the media covered it all in a respectful and substantive fashion. Wow!
It feels good to win, although here in Alabama we certainly didn't get everything we wanted. Obama's performance in Alabama was disappointing, especially in rural areas of the state, and the red shift in North Alabama troubles me. That's a blot on my happiness, but not nearly as big a blot as Josh Segall's 6 point loss in AL-03. Sure, I'm happy that Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright walked away winners, but Josh had my heart. He represents a new generation of Democrats in Alabama -- smart, populist leaning, concerned with grassroots issues and not shy about taking the fight to the other guy. That's a tough loss, made tougher because he did it all on his own -- imagine what DCCC help would have done in this race. Josh has significant campaign debt and it would be nice to help him retire it, so maybe we will see him taking on the system again in the near future.
Judge Deborah Bell Paseur's Supreme Court race is another blight on my happiness. This one is not quite lost yet, but I'm not comfortable that the three Republicans in charge -- Gov. Bob Riley, AG Troy King and SoS Beth Chapman -- will really do due diligence to count all the votes (provisional and absentee) before they certify the results and deny her a recount. After Florida in 2000, Alabama in 2002 and Ohio in 2004 they should know that all we want is to be sure all the legitimate votes are counted. Is that too much to ask in a democracy?
Congratulations to all the winners in this election and many thanks to all who made the sacrifice to run. I salute your courage and your faith in the democratic process.
Here are a few other disjointed thoughts I want to share with you guys and gals. I'm not claiming these are important, but I found them interesting:
I listened to Sean Hannity for a few minutes this afternoon and he was plugging a special "therapy session" at 3 pm when folks who were just feeling down could call in and vent. I tuned in for a tiny piece and he was calling an extreme left wing caller (guy who referred to Obama as the messiah) a "dope." Face it, the only people who call in to Hannity, Rush, etc. nowadays are the fringe extremists from both right and left. Relevant to middle America? Not much.
Just before the election Peanut Parker came out with a whopper in the Huntsville Times, and it wasn't even related to Parker Griffith's medical career or Barack Obama's postion on NASA, although he misrepresented both. No, the unmitigated lie Parker told was this:
In Montgomery, my opponent voted with the liberal caucus 99.6 percent of the time and we have no reason to think he will do otherwise in Washington.
There is no "liberal caucus" in the Alabama Legislature. I'm a liberal, I follow the doings in the Legislature and I can assure you there is nothing resembling a liberal caucus down there. I would love to see the progressive grassroots make a start on a progressive caucus in Montgomery in the 2010 legislative elections. Put that on our wish list.
So, here I am on the day after a historic election.
After spending Sunday and Monday working on organizing our pollwatcher program here in Madison County, I spent half of Tuesday working at Headquarters and half as a pollwatcher in my own precinct. Then to the election-watch party at the U.S. Space and Rocket center, which did not really run late. As a professor of mine once taught me, "before midnight, it's not late - and after midnight, well, there's no damn doubt about it, it's early!" Then this morning, after waking up to a new day in America, my wife and I took ourselves over to break down party headquarters, so that all the furniture and equipment may come back to fight another day.
Did I mention sleep? Well, I did sleep more than many others, so I'm not whining. Just the same, I am getting as who should say a little ragged round the edges.
Now, my wife and I have hauled our share of the Madison County Democratic infrastructure home for storage till the next election (6 weeks to pick Parker Griffith's Alabama Senate replacement, woo-hoo!). After lugging a deceptively heavy for its size printer into the house, and faced with a trip to deliver some leftover materials into the deep beyond of New Market, my wife suggested that a cold drink might be in order. I said, sure, I'll get you something at XXX's store.
Now, let me go into a little backstory. Like I said, I spent about half of Election day at our precinct, poll watching. It was pleasant, I sort of played a game of watching the voters as they walked in the door and guessing who they'd vote for. I didn't keep a tally, but I was pretty sure how it would turn out. This is a largely white and elderly precinct in rural North Alabama, and the results on the tape from the voting machines bore out my expectations. Roughly 1/4 to 1/3 for Obama and state Democrats, 3/4 to 2/3 for the other side. Local Democratic incumbents, such as county tax assessor, tax collector, and county commissioner, did well. In my precinct, we like what we're used to.
So anyhow, we pull up at XXX store, which is in our precinct. The store has probably been there since before I was born, maybe before my father was born. It has a couple of gas pumps out front, a sign on the roof with Coca-Cola round signs at either end, a walk-in drink cooler and a lot of canned goods on the shelves. Probably thousands of stores like it in the rural South. I went be-bopping in there to get my beloved a cold drink. I am wearing my Obama tee-shirt, one of the commemerative ones from Denver that was made up for the speech at Invesco Mile-High stadium. It has the American flag with Obama's monochrome image over one side. Nice shirt, I really like it. I picked up the drink, and went to the counter to pay out. The counter guy was a middle-aged white guy like me. On the wall behind him was a little souvenir license plate from DC that said "Capitol Republican" and clippings of a decidedly conservative cast from the Letters to the Editor of the local paper. I'd seen all this before, it didn't bother me. Living around here, you get used to this. The man rang up the drink, and I paid him. He gave me my change, and I turned to leave.
Then he said "Sir!" I stopped and asked him "What?" He stuck his hand out and said "Congratulations, on the victory. He wasn't my first choice, or my second, but he's all of our president, and we need to support him. I hope he does well!"
I told him, "I hope he does too! We need to get behind him, and all of them, because this country needs fixing" He said, "It sure does!"
So, here's hoping most of America is more concerned that America can do well, than which party gets the credit.
This is going to be a spreadsheet heavy post, so fair warning. I've updated the Alabama Presidential Elections spreadsheet to reflect the 2008 county by county results. These are not the final, complete, certified, results but they are the best I can find at this very moment.
Several things happened in Alabama. The turnout was somewhat lower than the 78 - 80% that was widely predicted. Second, although the Democratic ticket did significantly better in many counties than in the 2004 election, in some counties they actually performed worse.
I'm going to be posting "races of interest" around the country as the DCCC calls them -- or otherwise makes an interesting pronouncement. I'll put updates at the top of this diary.
This is the most important Congressional race in Alabama for progressive Democrats. Who would have believed Alabama would have 3 competitive House races this year? Anyway, Segall has already made an impressive showing, raising over a million dollars to run against a 3 term incumbent. Somebody please tell me the last time a Democratic challenger raised that kind of money in Alabama.
Segall also has an impressive field organization -- an army of volunteers (way more effective than paid canvassers) and some very savvy folks running his turnout machine. He's been endorsed by Ron Sparks, Jim Folsom and Don Siegelman -- I understand Siegelman recorded a GOTV call for Segall and I'm told a call from Bill Clinton is also going to selected households in the third district -- as it is in at least one other competitive district in the state.
What can you do?
Sign up to call voters from home and remind them vote. Sign up online or call (334-265-7999), and they will email you a packet of calls to make. These calls are incredibly important, so please pitch in if you can!
They will need lots of volunteers driving to the polls, making calls and knocking on doors on Election Day, so please sign up to help!
After the polls close on Tuesday, Josh and his supporters will be watching the returns in downtown Montgomery at the Biscuits Stadium starting at 8PM. Join them in the Locomotive Loft on the second floor.
I'm told that yard sign theft is epidemic in the 3rd district. One young man was actually apprehended taking Segall signs but Josh declined to press charges. Mercy is probably the right call in this situation, although I confess being more than a little peeved with the young hooligans who have been taking the signs from my driveway.
Sen. Parker Griffith is out talking to voters in the final hours of this election -- emphasizing his firm stance on real issues by visiting every Waffle House in Alabama's 5th district. I've eaten in many of these Waffle Houses -- pecan waffles and hash browns scattered and smothered are my favorites -- and can tell you firsthand that the folks eating there are not the hoi polloi. Kudos to Sen. Griffith for taking the time to meet Middle America where they dine -- 24 hours a day.
Huntsville, AL – Dr. Parker Griffith will travel across North Alabama today on the final day of campaigning before Election Day visiting with voters at every Waffle House in the district. In addition to visiting all twelve Waffle Houses in the region Griffith will also include other stops such a Prayer Breakfast in Jackson County and a tour of Helen Keller Hospital in the Shoals.
"I am committed to working across the aisle for real solutions for our economy, health care, immigration and energy independence" said Griffith. "These are the issues that are important to our families but for too long our leaders have "waffled" on these problems. Instead of working together to fix them they play political games instead. This must stop now."
"Everywhere I go people are sick and tired of the negative attacks and political games." added Griffith. "They are scared about the economy and scared about the future. People want real common sense solutions to the problems facing this country and I am committed to working for those in Congress."
I apologize for having posted nothing today, but I've been putting my work where my mouth is at Democratic HQ. It is has been crazy busy here all day, as it was Saturday and Sunday. Now, at about 6:30 pm the place is still full -- every phone is in use, an unprecedented 5th class of poll watchers is underway and the person coordinating rides to the polls needs to clone herself a couple of times. I just heard a party regular say "We didn't have this many people wanting to take people to the polls for Clinton in '92."
More people than in 1992. Y'all just think about what that means in terms of excitement and volunteers. All these people are working to turn out voters for Obama, on top of the paid staff the Congressional candidates and other candidates may have. It's pretty exciting and I can't wait for the results to come in tomorrow. I really believe Obama is going to do much better than the polls predict in Alabama.
Well, here we are, less than 36 hours away from polls closing in Alabama. Newspapers up and down the state have are making endorsements: the Montgomery Advertiser, Tuscaloosa News, and Anniston Star for Obama; the Birmingham News, Mobile Press-Register, and Opelika-Auburn News for McCain.
But the newspaper "of record" in the largest metropolitan area in North Alabama, has declined to endorse a candidate for president. They wouldn't take a side in the Fifth Congressional District race, either. Instead, they ran a contest to pick a column for each Presidential candidate from reader's submissions, and asked the Congressional campaigns to fill in where that endorsement was to be.
Our Exalted Grand Political Editor and all-around good egg made the case, in 800 well chosen words, for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. You can see it below the fold.
So, Huntsville Times, whenever you find yourselves lacking the gonadical fortitude to have an opinion on a race, come over to Left in Alabama. We always have opinions and hand them out for free.
As Mooncat reported, we're getting a LOT of traffic this weekend at Left in Alabama. Some of you may be new visitors looking for information about the Alabama Constitutional Amendments or our state candidates.
Here's a quick "diary of diaries" that links to some of our past posts discussing candidates and amendments.
#1 - This is what happens when you miss part of a Congressional candidate "debate" and the part you catch is so bad you don't bother to go back and watch the rest. Apparently the beginning of the AL-05 debate was even worse than the piece we saw. I found this at Progressive Puppy, the transcript is courtesy of Pam's House Blend and Blue Gal gets the hat tip for being first on the story.
[WHNT anchor Steve] Johnson's first searing question: "How do you reconcile the tone of this campaign with your Christianity? Is this how Jesus would want to see you campaigning? And maybe the best way to ask this is with the popular question - What would Jesus do?"
PARKER: "That's a good question. You know that oftentimes Jesus is presented as meek and mild, but he was a man's man. He grew up a carpenter, he worked with his hands. And he had some really hard things to say to religious leaders of his time. He called some wolves in sheep's clothing, he called others hypocrites. So, I think what Jesus do is he would always speak the truth."
(Dem Griffith tries mightly to steer the debate into sane territory.)
GRIFFITH: "I think he'd probably be ashamed of both of us a little bit. I think the financial crisis that we are facing in America today begs for solutions, it doesn't beg for blame, it doesn't beg for finger-pointing, and throwing mud at each other. I think we've got families out there that are absolutely devastated by this, pensions are disappearing. Families don't know how they are going to educate their children, and I think we really, really have done ourselves a disservice by not discussing the issues."
Jesus was a man's man? What the heck does that mean? And what does it have to do with a Congressional race? Real hardball journalism they practice up in North Alabama. The media has covered the horserace (mud) rather than the Congressional race (issues) in AL-05.
#2 - Republicans have butchered the English language for political gain to so much they've lost track. In today's Huntsville Times on page A10, there's a small add paid for by the Madison County Republican Executive Committee. Whether out of confusion or sheer incompetence, they can't decide how to refer to Democrats anymore:
Democratic County Commissioners ... Democrat Commissioners ... Democrat Commissioner ... The Democrat Commissioners ... Democratic County Commissioners ... liberal Democrat County Commissioners ...
Any halfway competent proofreader would have used the adjective "Democratic" throughout and any competent ideologue would have insisted on the grammatically incorrect but disparaging "Democrat" throughout. You almost feel sorry for these people.
#3 - Blog traffic today is surpassing even last Saturday's very good numbers -- 1760 hits and counting on a Saturday night. All I have to say is "Why are you people blogging 3 days before the most important election of your lives? You should be out knocking on doors and making phone calls for your candidates." You can read & comment on blogs anytime but for pity's sake, don't leave any voter untouched -- this election is happening on Tuesday whether we're ready or not. Leave it all on the road, people!
#4 - What do you do when somebody steals your Obama yard sign or bumper sticker? Call 20 more voters, that's what! Yard sign thefts are epidemic around here -- mine has been taken 3 times -- and I heard this solution from Madison County Democrats today. Hit them where it hurts, with voter contacts. If your local candidates/party can't set you up with voters to call, go to www.barackobama.com or open your own address book and start calling.
PS: Emailing everyone on your contact list is easy and free. Make sure they vote on Tuesday. And how about texting every contact in your phone? Get creative.
If you're a downticket candidate -- theoretically that's anybody below the top line on the ballot, but I really mean the bottom half of the ballot -- you need to define yourself and make the race about YOU, not whoever else is on the ballot with you because you can't depend on anyone's coattails to stretch all the way down to the county level.
That's why you don't find many county commission, school board and district judge candidates talking about the presidential or even the congressional candidates they share a ballot with. These folks have precious little time to talk to voters and they have to keep the conversation focussed on their race, not somebody up the ballot.
Reta McKannan is a judicial candidate in my neck of the woods who has done a couple of very effective ads in this vein. She features Democrats & Republicans, Alabama & Auburn fans, Grissom and Huntsville High coaches, prosecutors and defense attorneys -- people from opposite sides of several aisles -- but they all agree that she is the best candidate for District Judge in Madison County.
This one starts out with a pair who are voting for different candidates in the AL-05 Congressional race:
Here's the other one, featuring Courthouse folks:
Reta is using these examples to define herself as someone with broad appeal -- competent and fair -- just the sort of person you want on the bench. Local candidates have very few $$$ to define themselves and earn the liking and respect of voters so they have to be innovative. Have y'all seen any local candidates doing an especially good job of that this year?
I have almost let Halloween slip by without saying "Boo!" at Left in Alabama. Now, there may be some quarters where the mere phrase "Left in Alabama" inspires diving under the bedsheets in stark terror, but here in the purple depths, we are made of sterner stuff.
Let's just warm up a bit with some old standbys:
Like one that on a lonesome road Doth walk in fear and dread, And having once turned round walks on, And turns no more his head, Because he knows a frightful fiend Doth close behind him tread.
- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner"
I’m yet another resource-consuming kid in and overpopulated planet, raised to an alarming extent by Madison Avenue and Hollywood, poised with my cynical and alienated peers to take over the world when you’re old and weak.
“Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 22 days to go. We're six points down. The national media has written us off. Sen. Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq,” McCain said.
“But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them.”
Are they just "whistling past the graveyard"? Or are they setting up the narrative to explain away the McCain November victory due to vote suppression?
Scared yet? Yes? Good! Get your butt out there and work to elect Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Parker Griffith, Vivian Figures, Deborah Bell Paseur, Clyde Jones, and all other Democrats running for county offices in Alabama.
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Sen. Parker Griffith is out talking to voters in the final hours of this election -- emphasizing his firm stance on real issues by visiting every Waffle House in Alabama's 5th district. I've eaten in many of these Waffle Houses -- pecan waffles and hash browns scattered and smothered are my favorites -- and can tell you firsthand that the folks eating there are not the hoi polloi. Kudos to Sen. Griffith for taking the time to meet Middle America where they dine -- 24 hours a day.
"Everywhere I go people are sick and tired of the negative attacks and political games." added Griffith. "They are scared about the economy and scared about the future. People want real common sense solutions to the problems facing this country and I am committed to working for those in Congress."
