(This needs to go back to the top and (hopefully) discussed more. Ron Sparks will make his announcement tomorrow, whether or not LiA Front Page posts are at the top or not. - promoted by BenGoshi)
This may seem like Political Science 101, but the topic has come up several times in recent comment threads, so maybe it deserves some space.
Democrats cannot win statewide in Alabama with just the base. Neither can Republicans. Surveys I've found don't break the state down any further than that, but it's a safe bet we also can't win any congressional district other than the 7th with just base voters. Here are some recent survey results:
Democrat 37% Republican 33% Independent 27% Other 3%
It's hard to find any survey showing Democrats over 40% party id in Alabama. Sorry, but that just isn't enough to win. You will find numbers like those in virtually every survey that includes a question on party ID and election results back it up. Virtually any Democrat (no matter how poorly funded) running against Shelby or Sessions or for a major statewide office will get 35-40% of the vote. That's the floor for a Democrat. The real trick is getting from the floor to the 50% + 1 required to win.
There is no winning here without appealing to a large chunk of independent voters or even moderate Republicans. There's also no winning without the base, which means capitulation doesn't work -- see the example of Parker Griffith if you don't believe that. He lost the Democratic base and has been forced to go whole hog and try for GOP base voters instead. Very risky course.
Democrats have to persuade voters in the middle that we can govern better than Republicans. Progressives need to be making the case for progressive policy and candidates. All too often we have dismissed the arguments of the other side as stupid, worthless , etc. or at best we say something like, "no one would believe that" and walk away leaving people to believe what they hear on talk radio or Fox news. We have to engage, we have to persuade, we have to listen to the crazy arguments and politely but firmly refute them. That's how you reach the voters in the middle. It's how you change the wind and it's what we have to do.
Nobody else is going to do it for you. From Organizing for America ...
“We are at one of those rare moments in history where we’ve been given the opportunity to change our country for the better. But it’s never easy, and it never starts in Washington.It Starts with You."– President Barack Obama
You're looking for a savior. And like that Savior of biblical fame, s/he isn't coming, as long as there are people like me out there. I personally won't work for a company or organization that goes against my personal convictions. But 99% of us certainly will.
If you want to win, you will ORGANIZE. You will organize in the same way the Right has done for the last 40 years, and you will spend money on persuasion, where it really matters. You will, in short, make the politicians as afraid of you as they are of them. The Right has built vast networks of think tanks, newspapers, periodicals, cable news channels, and political advocacy organizations to spread their finely tuned, well-honed messages. Their politicians may fail them, and their actual policies may be deeply unpopular, but their message machine nearly always works its magic to get them what they want, even when Democrats are in power.
That's partly because the American political Right never quits and never gives up. They know that organization is the key to their success, and they don't trust politicians to do their work for them. Democrats, on the other hand, get disappointed and quit when our politicians don't pan out the way we wanted. That's why we lose.
Now, OFA may or may not be the best vehicle for organizing, I really don't know. The point is, we have to get the job done one way or the other. Get yourselves ready folks, because this is going to be a long war -- unless you plan to just roll over now.
Three cheers for Women's Suffrage, the Civil Rights Act, Marshall Plan, NASA, and the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act!!
All these - and MORE - were brought to you by the Democratic Party.
Want to remind yourself, family members, and the person in line behind you at the grocery store just what Democratic policies have meant and still mean to our country? The Democratic Party is offering this t-shirt just in time for holiday shopping. It's $20 with free shipping.
The front says in smal letters: The Democratic Party. The back lists these:
Women's Suffrage Act - Securities and Exchange Act - Social Security Act - Unemployment Compensation - Rural Electrification Act - Federal Home Loan Program - 40-Hour Work Week - Minimum Wage - Overtime - GI Bill - School Lunch - Marshall Plan - NATO - Peace Corps - First Manned Moon Mission - Civil Rights Act - Medicare - Medicaid - Voting Rights Act - HeadStart - Guaranteed Student Loan Program - Family & Medical Leave Act - Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act
BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
When there's still so much work to be done, it's easy to get discouraged. But think about how far we've come. Life is a journey - as is the neverending fight for equality justice for all. I'm proud to be part of a party that's leading the way - even if it veers dangerously close to the ditch and almost gets turned around entirely sometimes.
Buy it for yourself, friends, and those sweet, cuddly Republicans in your life! Note, LIA doesn't make $$ off the purchase! ;-)
But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:
QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?
The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:
Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting
Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will "definitely not vote" in 2010 than are Republicans.
These guys are just killing their base, while the opposition is revving up theirs. When will Democrats figure out how that it's ok to please the people who put you in office?
For example, I was resigned to a congressman (Parker Griffith, AL-05) who would not be much better than his Blue Dog predecessor, except I knew he understood the need to fix health care and he would likely drop Bud Cramer's obsession with eliminating the estate tax. That isn't much, but it was plenty to get me psyched enough to put out some signs and defend him to my friends. What do I get in return? He's against health care reform, still pushing to eliminate the estate tax and bashing Nancy Pelosi to boot.
Griffith isn't slightly better than Cramer, he's worse, and if the election were tomorrow he'd lose because his base is completely demoralized. This will be very ugly for Congressional Dems next November unless they start listening/talking to the people who put them in office.
I've ranted about different factions and the infighting under the so called democratic big tent.
Frankly, I don't see how one can be both Conservative and a Democrat. Democrats are pro choice. Conservatives are pro life as long as it's in the womb. Democrats are pro equal rights and civil rights. Democrats are pro labor and pro union, Conservatives are pro-prayer in school and pro "traditional family". Conservatives favorite Congressmen are Jim Marshall and Jim Taylor, Democrats favorite Congressmen are John Lewis, Robert Wexler and Dennis Kuchinich.
I am very happy to be a BIG D democrat. However, we may be at our most vulnerable time and we must be very wise in how we position ourselves and how we move forward.
One thing I will say about Davis's candidacy, it is pitting democrat vs democrat, white vs black, conservative vs liberal, white progressives vs black progressives, pro choice vs anti choice, north AL vs south AL, rural voters vs urban voters. And some call me "divisive"? Go figure.
Alabama Democrats likely need more Populism and Progressivism from their Chairman than prayer and publishing.
The democratic party is not pure or perfect because it's been infiltrated by those who don't share democratic party principles or values. Candidates and elected officials feel free to take our money and our votes for granted and pander to those who might vote for them (or not) at the expense of those who have to vote for them because they have no where to go.
Bash and smear me all you want. You aren't hurting me. You're hurting our party and our country.
Links below the fold just in case the ones in the diary don't work.
Why would conservatives be a member of a party where they disagree with the party platform? Think about it.
I'm with healthy, lets stop calling them Blue Dogs and start calling them Blue Rats!
Blue RATS are REPUBLICANS! Why did they ran on the democratic platform? Because the Democratic Party allowed them to promote rightwing ideals and of course, to get OUR MONEY! It was a very smart strategy to lull Democrats into believing they have a majority, when in fact, THEY don’t. (Although of course as someone pointed out, it allows us to have Pelosi and not Boehner as the speaker of the house, but a simple majority with true Democrats would do that too)
The reign of the anti-school tax activists on area school boards was a short one
Fairfield School Board incumbent Arnie Engel, who tried four times to get elected to Fairfield Schools governing board before finally winning in fall 2005, this time finished a distant fourth in the race for three open seats.
In Warren County's Mason School Board race, self-proclaimed "Christian conservative" incumbent Jennifer Miller ended up fifth out of eight candidates vying for three seats.
In the Monroe school board race, fiscal conservative Mike Irwin lost his re-election bid, finishing dead last among five candidates.
I wouldn't always be outraged if there weren't so much to be outraged about. Outrage is a good thing. It's better than the alternative.
Redeye stomping away from the computer in outrage.
Right here in Alabama! Four Republican judges from Jefferson County and one from Montgomery county were accepted by the State Democratic Executive Committee today and will be able to run as Democrats next year.
The Jefferson County party switchers are Circuit Judges Dan King and Virginia Vinson and District Judges Eric Fancher and Sheldon Watkins. The party switcher from Montgomery County is Circuit Judge William Shashy.
The executive board also voted to accept former Republican state Rep. Johnny Ford of Tuskegee into the party. That will allow Ford to run for a state Senate seat next year as a Democrat.
Hat tip to quaoar who has an excellent diary on this party switching at dKos.
Obama actually carried Jefferson County 52% to 47%, which was something of a surprise because even though Birmingham is black-majority it is outnumbered by the white suburbs.
So these judges switching is not as big of an earth-shaking event as if judges from Shelby or Baldwin County had switched, but it is a telling sign.
It's been over a week since the Ala GOP announced Lester Phillips' appointment as Director of Minority Outreach in an effort to woo minorities. According to the Ala GOP and Phillips, the republican party realized the error or their ways and wanted to woo minorities from the democratic party to the republican party. After admitting I was receptive to some wooing and even offering my assistance and advice ( see What the GOP needs to do to "woo" minorities) I haven't heard not one, single, solitary woo.
I guess it depends on what the definition of "Woo minorities" IS.
Congressman Artur Davis gave an excellent speech to the Downtown Democratic Club in Birmingham last Friday. He touched on the gubernatorial race of course (more on that later) but I thought his remarks on the Democratic party -- that Democrats can and do win in Alabama when we make our case -- were the highlight of the day.
One of my pet peeves is that too often Democrats act like people will just naturally realize our ideas, values and candidates are better than the other guys'. Sorry, folks. The other guys have a lot of money and advertising talent behind their ideas. Unfortunately, when money talks, merit sometimes walks. We need to be making our case as often and as eloquently as possible.
Video below the fold.
Hat tip to countrycat for the photo at right -- what about that nice purple tie, huh?
Wow. This ad is so good, I though it must have been produced by the Daily Show, but no... it's from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). A nice little 40 second spot that actually holds people accountable for their actions and statements instead of pretending that the past didn't happen.
Note the cameo by our own Richard ("where's Obama's birth certificate?") Shelby:
If your circle of friends isn't expanding, then it must be shrinking. That's especially true for political parties so this news from Rasmussen is particularly good for Democrats:
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats inched up again in December to 41.6%. That’s up two-tenths of a point since November and the third straight monthly increase in the number of Democrats.
...
At the same time, the number of Republicans declined a full percentage point from 33.8% in November to 32.8% in December. That’s the lowest number of Republicans since August. The number claiming allegiance to the GOP peaked in September at 34.4% as the party enjoyed a convention bounce and Sarah Palin was picked as the party’s Vice Presidential nominee.
...
Currently, the Democrats enjoy an 8.8 percentage point advantage over Republicans. Two years ago, in the December after Democrats regained control of Congress, they enjoyed a 6.9 percentage point advantage over the GOP in terms of partisan identification. That was their biggest advantage ever prior to 2008.
Barack Obama, with his remarkably inclusive "yes we can" campaign, has done a great deal to expand the number of Americans who identify with the Democratic party or at least feel friendly toward it. The great challenge will be to keep growing that circle of friends and make sure party officials don't feel so threatened by the new activism they try to replace "Yes we can!" with "No you can't!" Look at the current disarray in the Republican party to see where that will lead.
I really like General Wes Clark. This is from last night at Netroots Nation 2008.
Clark started out talking about the misinterpretation of his own remarks on Face the Nation but segued into a bigger problem for the Democratic Party -- credibility on national security. He's quoting James Carville here:
"You'll never get the American people to believe that Democrats will defend them until Democrats stand up and defend each other."
When attacked, we can't just give up. We need to fight back and that mindset has to start within out party -- if the rightwing attacks one of our own we shouldn't just sit on the sidelines like spectators at a bullfight. We need to stand up for our own as we did for Clark a couple of weeks ago.
I couldn't help wondering if Clark might also be thinking about Don Siegelman. When the Bush DOJ started attacking him back in 2002, there was conspicuous silence from the folks on his own side. Would the outcome have changed if the Democratic Party and prominent Democrats had defended Siegelman when he was being investigated and prosecuted? We'll never know, but I'm darned sure that's what the Republicans would have done. Look how hard they fought to protect Tom Delay.
The Democratic Party is catching up with Republicans in terms of technology to find and contact persuadable voters. In other words, we're shaking off that "not an organized political party" mantle and getting the nuts and bolts of voter contact done, and done right. Under the leadership of Governor Howard Dean, the DNC has made significant investments in its voter file, infrastructure, and microtargeting efforts and now has a national voter file with comprehensive data on voters around the country that will be an invaluable asset come November.
The DNC has now reorganized its data banks into one centralized file that goes a long way toward neutralizing the GOP’s advantage in drilling down and identifying crucial constituencies of voters.
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Recently, the DNC began a “neighbor to neighbor” program that “geo-codes” volunteers — a process that assigns geographic identifiers to them — to increase the likelihood that neighbors will canvass neighbors.
In short, a volunteer signs up. The 25 nearest neighbors who pique the DNC’s interest are then mapped out for the volunteer. The DNC also offers a script to use during canvassing as volunteers go door to door, asking their neighbors the degree of their Democratic support or their support for John McCain. The volunteer asks their neighbor’s top issue interests. The aim is to return and later target each person with a specific script based on their previously identified concerns.
Volunteers are ranked locally for their effectiveness and rewarded with invitations to intraparty conference calls or meetings. They are also encouraged to forward invitations by e-mail to friends or family, mimicking the viral success of social networking websites.
I've seen the new voter file interface and, let me tell you, it's going to be a lot more fun being a Democrat in 2008 than it was in 2004, or even in 2006. You can sign up as a Democratic volunteer now -- "precinct organizers" are particularly needed. This is not difficult work. Like I said, the new tools will make it even more fun than in the past.
The Decatur Daily doesn't do many rants, but for some reason they got off on Democratic superdelegates a couple of days ago.
The Democratic presidential selection process is close to returning the party to its old ways. Party officials are willing to discount votes in state after state to give Barack Obama the nomination.
They were willing to disenfranchise West Virginia voters this week where Sen. Hillary Clinton won an impressive victory. They now are willing to discard the will of voters in Kentucky, Oregon and the few other remaining Democratic presidential primaries and rely on handpicked superdelegates to nominate him.
...
Why not void the results in Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota? The outcomes are moot anyway if superdelegates, who are not elected, continue lining up with Sen. Obama.
This doesn't make any sense to me. What voters were "disenfranchised" in West Virginia? No one is planning to "discard the will of the voters" in any of those states. The fact is, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination. They can't both win. Clinton won 20 delegates in West Va. to Obama's 8 -- how does that "disenfranchise" Clinton voters?
According to CNN, Obama has 1612 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1443, 292 superdelegates to her 274 and 1904 total to her 1717 total delegates. Obama also leads in the popular vote. The votes were counted in West Virginia and they will be counted in Kentucky, Oregon and the remaining states and territories. Why do the editors of the DD say the will of the voters is being discarded? People vote, delegates are apportioned and Obama is winning, fair and square. The superdelegates will have to vote in order for either candidate to reach the 2026 needed to win, but there's no sign they plan to overturn the will of the voters. To date, they're going along with the popular vote and the pledged delegate count.
I also have to point out that the Democratic superdelegates include all the Democrats currently serving as Governors, U.S. Senators and Congresspersons -- and those people are all elected and are responsible to their voters.
Finally, the BS of Obama's nomination being as "clouded" as Bush's 2000 "win" over Al Gore is just that -- Bull#$*%! Democrats are voting in all 50 states, their votes are being counted, delegates are being apportioned according to the rules and the process is out in the open where everyone can see it. By and large, even the superdelegates are openly declaring for one candidate or the other. It's not a perfect system, but the "Party Bosses" are definitely not doing backroom deals.
Democrats are faring extremely well in special elections this year, winning former Speaker Denny Hastert's district as well as a longtime Republican district in Louisiana last week. Next week there is another special election right next door in Mississippi and Democrat Travis Childers needs all the help he can get to turn the previously deep red Mississippi 1st district blue. This is from the DCCC:
Midnight tonight is the deadline to help Democrat Travis Childers in his bid to win our third straight Republican pick up in a special election. His special election is less than a week away and tonight is the last time to get contributions in enough time to still purchase more ad time, tanks of gas to drive voters to the polls, and help get canvassers on the ground. Please give to Travis at https://secure.actblue.com/contribute...
This November we will be playing in races like this nationwide, but next week with this special election we can set the tone by winning in a ruby-red district in Mississippi. Let's help put Travis Childers over the top and go three-for-three in special elections. We already won both the former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert's seat and another red seat this past Saturday in Louisiana -- let's finish the deal. Give generously and give now at https://secure.actblue.com/contribute...
Cotton Mouth has posted a couple of ads the DCCC is running on behalf of Childers. As Gene'O points out, MS-01 is another district where Republicans are running misleading ads trying to link the Democrat with Barack Obama's former minister. That's a pretty tenuous linkage that has nothing to do with the district. Also, Dick Cheney is coming to the district to campaign and fundraise for the Republican. Why not give to Childers to demonstrate your contempt for Dirty Dick?
As promised, here's more video of Nancy Pelosi's address to Democrats at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner last Friday.
She talks about health care as security issue, which it is, an economic security issue. She also advocated prevention rather than just focusing on treating disease. Reducing complications of diabetes (very costly) through better diet is one example she gave.
We need to focus on health, rather than just health care. Pelosi used the example of what if in the 1950's we had resolved to build the best iron lung instead of seeking a cure to eradicate polio?
40 days in Iraq would pay to insure 10 million American children through SCHIP. 2 weeks in Iraq is the equivalent of what America spends on cancer research every year. Why not declare a war on disease, like cancer, diabetes and heart disease?
"This is a value, a value of the American people -- the health and well being of our families. ... It's just about changing priorities, and to say if we can afford to go to Iraq then we can afford to go to war on disease in America and Democrats intend to do just exactly that."
The Alabama Democratic Party had a packed house for their spring Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Friday night. Party officers, candidates and elected officials were there, along with 500 or so rank and file Democrats, including former Gov. Don Siegelman, who recieved a warm welcome. The crowd was justified by the historic nature of Pelosi's visit. She is the first woman in the history of the United States to hold such a high office and an inspiration for young women everywhere.
Congressman Artur Davis (D, AL-07) introduced Speaker Pelosi. Before the dinner, Davis and Pelosi had visited the Lakeshore Foundation and visited with injured veterans who are in the rehab program there. She said Lakeshore is a tremendous resource not only to Alabama but to the entire nation. The Speaker declined to take a position on the Air Force tanker contract, but Rep. Davis said Congress should stay out of the deal.
Both Davis and Pelosi praised the absent Rep. Bud Cramer who will be retiring at the beginning of next year. The Speaker also praised State Rep. James Fields' historic victory earlier this year in a special election in Cullman County. I'll be posting video of Pelosi's speech in several parts, here is the first:
Alabama's always been about our national security. Great patriotic state ... a state that's done more than it's share to help us honor our oath of office to protect and defend the American people. Thank you Alabama, for that. .
.. In the military they say that on the battlefield, we will leave no soldier behind. That is their tradition. And we, the Democrats in Congress, say, and when they come home, we will leave no veteran behind.
Our first responsibility -- all the things that we want to do for our country don't really matter unless the people are protected. They must be safe. Safe in terms of our national security. Safe in their neighborhoods and communities. Safe in their homes. That's our responsibility
That is why, when the Democrats attained the control of the Congress our first piece of legislation on the very first day just a short time after the swearing in, HR.1 - House Resolution 1 - was to enact the 9/11 commission recommendations. For the safety of the American people. You would have thought they would have been passed a long time ago wouldn't you have? But they weren't. It took a Democratic majority and we did it as our very first thing and that's why we continue that committment to the security of the American people with passing what Artur very generously attributed to me, but an honor I share with him ... passing the biggest increase in veteran's benefits in the 77 year history ...
... Passing the first increase in the minimum wage in 10 years.
I just can't see why Republicans hate Nancy Pelosi so much. What part of this is out of the mainstream?
Today is the last day to make a reservation to the Alabama Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, featuring Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi as the keynote speaker. It isn't cheap, I know, but it's a fundraiser! The object is to raise money.
To all of you impeachment fans, I expect to see you there with at least a small, discreet "Impeach!" sign or sticker!
Other don't miss events coming up are:
Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb speaking at the Downtown Democrats meeting Friday, May 2 at noon at the Harbert Center in Birmingham. Lunch is $15 and you should RSVP by emailing downtowndems@gmail.com or by calling Judy at 822-8416.
Attorney Jere Beasley will be the guest speaker at the Madison County Democratic Women's Division annual John F. Kennedy Dinner thisThursday (tomorrow) at the Holiday Inn Madison Square in Huntsville. Registration begins at 5:00 with dinner served at 5:30. Call 656-8787 or e-mail madisoncountydemocraticwomen@gmail.com today for a reservation.
I remember a time when Alabama Democrats didn't particularly want to be mentioned in the same breath with "liberals" like Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer or Howard Dean. A few years back when Howard Dean visited Alabama he just came for a small fundraiser in Huntsville -- very quiet. Well, my friends, it looks like the times they are a changing -- for the better. Dean has attended several public events in Alabama in the past year, Barack Obama drew a crowd of 10,000+ in January and now Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) will be the main attraction at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Birmingham on May 2.
Via email from the Downtown Democrats:
Second, we have information on the upcoming Jefferson Jackson Dinner. It will be on Friday, May 2, 2008 in Birmingham. The guest speaker is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. You may buy tickets for this event by calling Stephanie Crompton at the State Party office, 334-262-2221.
The Alabama Democratic Party confirms that Speaker Pelosi will be the speaker for the JJ Dinner at the Cahaba Grand Conference Center where President Clinton spoke last year. Details are still being ironed out, but the dinner will probably start at 6 or 7 pm and the ADP hopes to mail invitations next week. Watch their event calendar for more details.
Nancy Pelosi's values and policy ideas are not particularly different from those of mainstream America or mainstream Alabama. She doesn't want to take our Bibles or our guns -- those are just right-wing talking points, not something any Democrat wants to do. I'm glad Speaker Pelosi is coming to Birmingham to speak and hope the Alabama media will report her remarks fairly and accurately so Alabamians can see and judge for themselves. I'm confident that Democratic candidates and ideas can compete in Alabama if the playing field is level.
A recent interview with Speaker Pelosi by Charlie Rose:
If you think it's a good thing to bring nationally prominent Democrats to Alabama, say thanks to the Alabama Democratic Party. Better yet, attend the JJ Dinner or send them a little donation so we can look forward to more of this in the future.
The share of voters who call themselves Republicans has declined by six points since 2004, and represents, on an annualized basis, the lowest percentage of self-identified Republican voters in 16 years of polling by the Center.
The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way.
Look at the graph (from the Pew report) -- Republican losses are reflected as gains for Independents. Anyone with a shred of independent thought has been jumping off the Republican ship since 2006
With far more Americans identifying themselves as Democrats than Republicans, President Bush’s job rating has hit a new low, according to the latest FOX News poll.
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This bad news for Bush comes at a time when the gap between those identifying themselves as Democrats and those identifying as Republicans has reached 13 percentage points (43 percent versus 30 percent), which is the largest difference ever measured in a FOX News poll.
Tell me again why anyone would change parties to run as a Republican this year?
All these - and MORE - were brought to you by the Democratic Party.
Congressman Artur Davis gave an excellent speech to the Downtown Democratic Club in Birmingham last Friday. He touched on the gubernatorial race of course (more on that later) but I thought his remarks on the Democratic party -- that Democrats can and do win in Alabama when we make our case -- were the highlight of the day. 
