We have long believed that media outlets issuing endorsements in political races should refrain from back-handed, half-hearted endorsements. It leads readers to wonder, “What was the point of that?”
Voters in Alabama’s U.S. House of Representatives 2nd District have no actual decision to make in this race though. Based on Bobby Bright’s voting record while in office and Martha Roby’s rhetoric, both would vote the same way on major issues, regardless of their professed party affiliation. Roby has admitted as much by virtue of directing her campaign attacks at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rather than her actual opponent. Among other actions, Bright has voted against healthcare reform; against the Ledbetter bill (to help prevent gender-based discrimination in wages); voted repeatedly against extensions of unemployment benefits for struggling Americans; and voted against the expansion of hate crimes statutes to include some of this country’s most frequent targets of hate, prejudice and assault. Bright has also voted against the CHIP program which serves lower income children whose families cannot afford healthcare, and against repealing the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy for service members, which is purely institutionalized discrimination against gays and lesbians. Bright even voted against the latest financial overhaul measures that will provide countless protections for consumers against shady banking and lending practices.
In Bright’s latest television ad, he even boasts of being “conservative” and “independent,” which is a poorly veiled way of saying that he’s a D.I.N.O - Democrat in Name Only.
The only factor for 2nd District’s voters to consider is which of these candidates will be in the majority when the electoral dust settles. After all, a member of Congress in the minority party has less influence and budgeting prowess than a member in the majority party. This means less federal funding (“pork”) a minority member can funnel back to his or her district.
If you believe the Democrats will retain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, then re-elect Bright. If you believe Republicans will take control, vote for Roby. We recommend neither. This match-up is nothing more than an extended Republican primary.
Bobby Bright didn't want to give a straight answer to a question about whether he would vote for Nancy Pelosi again as Speaker of the House.
Bright, who is facing a battle against Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby this fall, joked that Pelosi might lose her own election, decide not to run for the speaker’s job or otherwise not be available.
He suggested, jokingly he insisted to his audience, that Pelosi could fall ill and die in coming months. That remark drew laughter from the crowd.
Yeah, that's real funny. And a boatload of Obama Democrats might undervote your race too, Congressman, then you won't have to worry about who to back for Speaker.
This is in the same class with Parker Griffith's assertion that Nancy Pelosi could use a gift certificate to a mental health center, although Bright probably delivered his lame joke attempt with more style. And he's getting more national attention for it, too -- not just blogs but TV pundits are noticing Bright's faux pas.
When are Republican-lite, Blue Dog types going to figure out that this kind of Democrat bashing is an all around loser for them? Bright just reminded every Republican in his district that he voted for Pelosi last time -- they don't like that. He just made every Democrat mad because he dissed the party and the Speaker of the House (let's leave off what it does to his relationship with the House Leadership) -- they sure don't like it. And voters in the mushy middle can see he tried to duck a question and failed miserably -- no one likes fail.
Come on guys, quit trying to obfuscate and just be honest with voters. If you're a Democrat you're going to vote for a Dem as Speaker. It would be dishonest to do anything else.
It will be, whether it makes sense in a particular locale or not. Not as big an issue as jobs and the economy, but immigration lends itself to fear-mongering the unknown in a way unemployment doesn't. The 270 View noted fear very much in evidence at Rep. Bobby Bright's recent Immigration Town Hall Meeting:
Mr. Bright stated that he "totally agreed" with the recent law the State of Arizona had passed on immigration. But most disturbing of all was how he continually throughout his thirty minute or so speech on Immigration referred to illegals as "them" and "those people." Talk like this reminded me of Alabama's own Civil Rights history. ...
I originally came to this meeting without planning to speak. However after hearing all that was said and the continual "them" and "those people" I knew that I needed to say something. I briefly spoke to the crowd about my grandmother immigrating to this country from England by way of Bermuda and how this country was founded and built on the backs of immigrant labor. On how fear was being used and how that was not the reality of the situation. I discussed what I thought about a politician using expressions like "Them" and "those people."
The constitutional challenge to Arizona's Immigration Law will guarantee this issue has a high profile through the November election. Concerns are legitimate -- good people on both sides agree that it isn't healthy for society to have a big chunk of folks here illegally, effectively forming a social and legal underclass with few, if any, rights. But the fear-mongering for political gain is disgusting, especially from people who aren't interested in addressing the root causes of the immigration problem, just using it to scare a few more people into voting against "them" or "those people."
The Democrats' six-point advantage in Gallup Daily interviewing from July 12-18 represents the first statistically significant lead for that party's candidates since Gallup began weekly tracking of this measure in March.
Below is the Pollster.com tracking average -- without Rasmussen which makes an R+2 difference all by itself -- for the generic Congressional ballot. Not great, but it's beginning to look like the bleeding has stopped. And the Senate should finally be able to move on extending unemployment benefits today after the new Senator from West Virginia, Carte Goodman (D), is sworn in depriving the Party of NO of their filibuster. The Republican stand against the long term unemployed is just wrong, morally, economically and politically wrong, and voters should make them pay a price for it in November.
What does this mean in Alabama? Well, improvement in the generic ballot situation is good news for Bobby Bright, Democratic incumbent in AL-02, who faces a tough election challenge this fall. Bright raised $86,700 last quarter and is sitting on $734K cash on hand. His challenger, Martha Roby, is fresh from a runoff with the "gather your armies" wingnut and reports just $121.5K cash on hand.
Improvement in the generic ballot condition for Democrats is also good for Steve Raby who is seeking to take over Parker Griffith's seat in AL-05 -- expect that contest to be another knock-down, drag-out with heavy expenditures from "independent" organizations just like it was in 2008. And let's not forget William Barnes, running against Richard Shelby. Barnes probably won't be well financed so any uptick in favorability of generic Democrats will benefit him ... at absolutely no cost.
I spent my Memorial Day weekend in Baldwin County. My intention was to have a leisurely trip to visit some old friends, but from almost the instant I got onto AL-59, a new topic reared its ugly head. I did have time to relax, but I ended up working for most of the weekend.
Almost immediately, I noticed that there are no signs anywhere for Democratic candidates in statewide or local races. I wasn’t sure what to think of it-- possibly some irreverent Republican canvassed the county, pulling them up and replacing them with signs from their own party.
I have to say, I’ve always enjoyed primary elections more than the general.
Of course, there’s more bearing to voting in the general election, but to me, the primaries are much more fun. You get to vote for who you want to. There’s a lot to be excited about.
Rep. Bobby Bright (D, AL-02) doesn't plan to vote for Health Care Reform. Below the fold is his letter to Speaker Pelosi explaining his position.
At the link above, some commenters are complaining that Bright's letter is too nice. It is a nicely worded letter. Although I disagree with his decision to vote NO, unlike my own congressman, at least Bright isn't suggesting Speaker Pelosi needs mental health counseling.
For the better part of a year, the national "experts" have been having vapors over how Bobby Bright is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in Congress. Enter a new poll, from Anzalone-Liszt, that shows nothing of the sort. Bright is over 50% in match-ups with all three prospective Republicans:
In head-to-head scenarios, Bright leads Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby by 24 percentage points (54 percent to 30 percent), state school board member Stephanie Bell by 26 points (55 percent to 29 percent), and businessman Rick Barber by 32 points (58 percent to 26 percent).
It's like many of us have said over and over again, the PVI rating system based on presidential election results breaks down in states like Alabama where the presidential race is essentially uncontested by Democrats. Maybe it's better than nothing, but there's no way an R+16 district in Alabama is equivalent to an R+16 district in Ohio or Florida where the presidentials show up every four years.
BTW, some of us are of the opinion Parker Griffith could have been looking at similar numbers right now had he stayed the course as a Democrat instead of panicking and jumping out of the frying pan into the Republican primary. Not that we want him back ...
Hot on the heels of yesterday's comforting reassurances from Congressman Bright, AL-02 Democrats may have another spot of good(?) news this morning. State Board of Education member Stephanie Bell (R - District 3) told Doc's Political Parlor:
I have, however, seriously considered running for the Second Congressional seat since last March when I attended a meeting in Washington, D.C., with the new U.S. Secretary of Education, members of Congress, several other high level federal officials, and 17 other state board of education members from across the country. In recent months, a draft committee, friends, and my family have all encouraged me to run for Congress.
Bell also said she never mentioned the possibility of running for Secretary of State to anyone -- having heard this rumor from a couple of folks on both sides of the aisle, I am curious as to where it got its start.
The prospect of not being able to primary Beth Chapman out of the seat is disappointing, but I don't have any problems with another contender hopping into the already-crowded GOP fray. Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby and businessman/Tea Party activist Rick Barber entered the primary last year.
Either way, this is yet another helpful reminder that the Democrats still lack a candidate to take on Secretary Chapman in the fall.
These are not particularly good, but I did what I could do. I -- or should I say, my Republican swing-voting parents - recieved another tele town hall phone call from Congressman Bobby Bright. So I tried to transcribe it and live tweet it at the same time, which was nearly impossible. Here are my tweets, and my transcript is below the fold. We got the call about halfway through, so I only have a few questions, unfortunately.
The highlights: pro pay-go, pro-Bush tax cuts, pro ... consumer protections? And his dad taught him to go home with the one who brought you to the dance. Onward:
Bobby Bright telephone town hall! Live tweeting begins. Someone is talking about home ownership. #alpolitics #al02
Someone asked what he plans to do in December: "I believe in going home with the one you went to the dance with." #alpolitics
Caller asks abt no social sec cost of living increase - Bright: "It's not political shenanigans going on, it's how the law is" #alpolitics
Bright says he sent a letter to Obama and his colleagues today to extend Bush tax cuts two years; wants to make them permanent #alpolitics
Deficit question. Caller says deficit is going to 'eat up this country' - Bright agrees. Caller is GOP, also says he'd vote for Bright again
Bright: "That wasn't solicited." Based on the make-up of our household - I'm betting he's targeting swing-voting Rs
(With the phone call that is)
Bright's hoping for a SOTU freeze on everything BUT military spending. Also keeping fingers cross for return to pay-go
Bright mentions a fiscal blue print the blue dogs released this week with ~fifteen steps to deficit reduction~ #alpolitics
Bright: Thanks very much Mr. Seamon, hope to see you when I'm in heaven. <--- ... is that a common phrase? I'm serious.
A prattville question!
Bobby Bright does not consider himself a politician, he considers himself a public servant. Shockingly, I almost agree.
I don't like his convictions, but ... y'know, at least he has them.
The basic complaint: not enough tax breaks for people with no dependents. Also, interest rates.
Bright: I supported the credit card bill of rights last year giving cardholders more leverage against credit companies. #alpolitics
That's how often he voted with his party last year and Bright is so proud of being the "second most independent member of Congress" that he put the story on his website.
Walt Minnick of Idaho was the only Democrat more independent than Bright with a party unity score of 41%. Where was Mr. "I was elected as an Independent Conservative" Parker Griffith? He was only the 9th most independent House member, voting with the Democratic party 70% of the time last year. Bet Griffith doesn't put that number on his website, lol!
Sporting a bright royal-blue tie, Bright told colleagues in the Democrats’ conservative Blue Dog Coalition, “I’m back.”.
Bright’s remark was greeted with applause and “attaboys,” according to Bright.
Bright is a lot more politically savvy than Griffith. He won the closest Congressional race in the country in 2008, can't spare a single vote if he wants to win reelection in 2010 and knows that switching parties inevitably turns off a lot of voters. Your old friends can't stand you, your new friends don't want you and the independents say you just proved politicians can't be trusted.
And really, why should Bright switch? After the initial organizing vote to elect Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, Democratic House leadership has let him vote pretty much as he wants or as will benefit his district. Could Bright hope for that same freedom as a Republican? Hell no! With a much smaller caucus the GOP leadership can't allow any defections from the party line -- Bright has much more freedom as a Democrat. Griffith did too, but he was too pre-occupied with polls to figure that out.
Via Facebook, the Davis campaign is hosting the grand opening of their Montgomery headquarters on Tuesday the 19th from 5pm to 7pm. I'll be there and I hope some of you will too! I've been waiting for some word about a Montgomery office from the campaign -- even though I know it was a little irrational to start my waiting so early.
Conveniently, Rep. Bobby Bright's Montgomery office is at the same street address. Won't it be fun if they're neighbors? Especially if Bright is going to need as much help turning out black voters in the district as this new New York Times article postulates:
Political analysts say Mr. Bright is smart to pay attention to the Wiregrass voters. He might not be able to count on such an enormous turnout among black voters in 2010 — even if, as is possible, Representative Artur Davis becomes the first black Democratic nominee for governor in Alabama history — leaving Mr. Bright to depend on people who normally vote Republican, a tall order.
It's a fun read. My favorite quote, by far, is at the tail end - wherein a "cautious" supporter of Bright admits it would be easier to support him openly if he were a Republican. Republicans: against the two-party system at all costs! Even the ones that agree with them.
[EDIT]: Since I've um, exceeded my two posts in 24 hours limit, I'll share this here. It's still relevent. Rep. Davis is also being featured as one of Politico's 25 Politicians To Watch In 2010.
Davis, who is vying to become the first African-American governor in the Deep South since Reconstruction, has an amazingly delicate balancing act in front of him. First he must win over skeptics in the Alabama Democratic establishment to capture the party nomination in the June primary. But he must do it without compromising his ability to compete as a black candidate in a conservative state where President Obama and the national Democratic agenda are highly unpopular. If Davis manages the feat, he’ll have rewritten all the rules of Southern politics.
1. Vote gainst the political leanings of their district,
2. Vote gainst key Democratic party legislation, and
3. Be less valuable than a Republican in the same seat.
(Hat tip to Kristopher from The World Around You - I spotted this gem from 538 in Kris' twitter stream.)
Nate Silver explains the last point:
On the other end of the spectrum are a handful of Democrats who have negative scores. They vote with their party less often than a generic congressman from their district would, even without guaranteeing that the generic congressman is a Democrat.
In other words, these are people who potentially deserve a primary challenge -- on average, dumping them would leave the Democrats better off, even if there's some chance that they'd be replaced by a Republican.
Now, I'm not particularly inclined to agree that any Republican would be more valuable than a Democrat in Bobby Bright's seat -- largely because my personal disagreement with his votes clashes with what I consider valuable pro-Dem PR in my district. I like to think that Rep. Bright, in all his niceness, is doing his small part to convince people Congressional liberals aren't all small-minded filthy heathen baby-killers, and that's always a positive. One must take small victories where zie can.
In Griffith and Davis' seats, I find Silver's argument holds a smidge less water - I can't imagine that someone who isn't Parker Griffith in that seat would vote against the Dems as consistently as he did. I also imagine that Davis' gubernatorial bid has a lot to do with his votes this year, and his successor will be a little more friendly to the best interests of the district.
In terms of numbers, I think Artur Davis' ranking on Silver's chart is the most fascinating -- Silver puts the district as D+18, and Rep. Davis' voting record this year is a stark contrast to what would generally be considered the (admittedly, Congressional) political security of falling in line with the Democrats on even some, if not all, of this session's major issues in a district that swung that far to the Democrats.
So while you are recovering from your festivities of choice today, think it over, and let me know: what say you?
Also: if you want to help send "more valuable" Alabama Reps to Congress next year, don't forget to donate to AL-03's Josh Segall and this adorable pooch, the Send Parker Griffith Home fund, and the Democratic primary candidate of your choice in AL-07 - check the list in the sidebar. And maybe the state party too? I volunteer there, so.
(Well, that's good news. Bright, while a conservative (with small "c") Democrat, is still a DEMOCRAT. Parker Griffith: take note.... - promoted by countrycat)
With Griffith’s announcement Tuesday, eyes immediately turned to his home state freshman counterpart, Rep. Bobby Bright.
But Bright told the House Democratic leadership Tuesday night that he planned to stay in the party, according to a senior Democratic aide.
A wise move. As Swing State Project's James points out, Griffith made a ridiculous move by putting himself in a position to be Scozzafava'd out of the race entirely by frustrated conservatives.
I sent a letter to Congressman Bright earlier today expressing my support for what he's done as a Democrat, and if you're in AL-02, I'd encourage you to do the same - even if you're only glad he's not Jay Love.
I live in Prattville and I am, on very rare occassions, not all that troubled with calling Bobby Bright my Congressman.
In his defense, he voted to deny Presidents (former, sitting, and their families) the power to block release of public White House records. On the other hand, he's voted against almost every major piece of legislation out of Congress (including the stimulus package and health care, though he was totes for the Stupak amendment.)
The point is: tonight my house got a phone call to join one of his tele-town halls (evidently he's held eight so far; this is my first) and for your sake, I live tweeted the whole thing.
THE HIGHLIGHTS:
Rep. Bright loves small businesses, ten thousand percent of the respondents to his magical phone poll don't support the health care bill, and he says no to a lot of things. (I missed this, but at one point he said he 'wished they would come up with something he didn't have to say no to.' I cried on the inside.)
How would you feel if you, or someone you loved, was diagnosed with cancer then fired from their job because "they were obviously unable to perform their duties"? Never mind they aren't able to perform their duties because they are undergoing chemo therepy. Never mind they won't have health insurance because it goes with the job. Never mind they can't afford the cobra payments to maintain their insurance because they have no job. Never mind they can't get health insurance because they have a pre-existing condidtion. Never mind their former employer has sentenced them to death.
It ought to be against the law for employers to fire people because they get sick. It ought to be against the law for health insurance companies to cancel your insurance or refuse to insure you because you get sick. Thanks to the passage of the affordable health choices act last night, these actions are against the law will be against the law if the legislation passes both houses and is signed by the President.
Bobby Bright, writing in the Montgomery Advertiser:
My vote against H.R. 3962 was not a rejection of health care reform; it was a rejection of a bill I believe fell short on some of the goals agreed upon by members of both parties and the president. In his address to a joint session of Congress, President Obama correctly stated that the number one problem our health care system faces is its unsustainable cost. We cannot expect to fully address our health care crisis unless we deal with the rising cost burdens on the federal government.
Nice to know he isn't against health care reform -- that's a good indication that public opinion is pro-reform, even in AL-02. He complains about the cost but has to go out to 2019 to find increases and also admits that the status quo is untenable -- I think I heard that GDP and health care costs would be equal in 2080 if we do nothing.
The bill mandates coverage for both individuals and small businesses, leaving Americans with no choice about whether they even want health insurance. We are a fiercely independent people and are right to be suspicious whenever the government mandates anything. People should be able to choose -- or not choose -- the type or amount of health insurance they want to have without the government's involvement in that decision.
This is the most interesting paragraph in the piece, imho, because it does touch on the libertarian feeling that is and always has been strong in the South. What argument would/do you use with your friends and family who feel this way?
This is an enormous bet, and not a well-designed one either, in my view. The Democratic Party will tomorrow give a minority of their caucus an opportunity to amend a large health care bill that would effectively ban abortion services coverage in the individual and small group insurance market, essentially telling private insurance companies what they cannot cover.
The deal clears the way for the dozens of Democratic lawmakers who oppose abortion to lend their support to the health care package, the most dramatic expansion of health coverage in more than 40 years. It also satisfies the demands of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, which had threatened to oppose the House bill.
If the amendment from Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) passes, said Richard Doerflinger, associate director of the bishops conference, "we become enthusiastic advocates for moving forward with health care reform."
The amendment is expected to pass with the combined support of more than 40 anti-abortion Democrats and virtually every House Republican. That likelihood meant that leaders of the much larger group of Democrats who support abortion rights were not happy to learn of the deal.
"There will be no abortion, not just with public funds, but with private funds under the public option, and that's not acceptable," said Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.).
Bright is probably a dead certain vote in favor of this amendment and Griffith is very likely to vote for it unless he receives calls from many, many outraged constituents. So, if you're a woman in AL-05 (North Alabama) please pick up the phone and call Parker Griffith's office and tell him you think the Stupak amendment goes too far, meddling with what private insurers can cover and ask him to please vote against that amendment. You might also ask what he would have done without the votes of women on November 4, 2008. Then hand the phone to your spouse or significant other and have them make the same call.
It's important to call Bobby Bright and our other Congressmen as well, but I think Parker Griffith is the most persuadable of our Blue Dogs so he's the highest priority.
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It will be, whether it makes sense in a particular locale or not. Not as big an issue as jobs and the economy, but immigration lends itself to fear-mongering the unknown in a way unemployment doesn't. 
