AL-02: Bobby Bright is in Better Shape than Predicted

by: mooncat

Mon Mar 01, 2010 at 07:09:51 AM CST

For the better part of a year, the national "experts" have been having vapors over how Bobby Bright is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in Congress.  Enter a new poll, from Anzalone-Liszt, that shows nothing of the sort.  Bright is over 50% in match-ups with all three prospective Republicans:

In head-to-head scenarios, Bright leads Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby by 24 percentage points (54 percent to 30 percent), state school board member Stephanie Bell by 26 points (55 percent to 29 percent), and businessman Rick Barber by 32 points (58 percent to 26 percent).

It's like many of us have said over and over again, the PVI rating system based on presidential election results breaks down in states like Alabama where the presidential race is essentially uncontested by Democrats.  Maybe it's better than nothing, but there's no way an R+16 district in Alabama is equivalent to an R+16 district in Ohio or Florida where the presidentials show up every four years.

BTW, some of us are of the opinion Parker Griffith  could have been looking at similar numbers right now had he stayed the course as a Democrat instead of panicking and jumping out of the frying pan into the Republican primary.  Not that we want him back ...

AL-02 Republican primary picks up another potential candidate

by: mediagadfly

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 11:45:08 AM CST

Hot on the heels of yesterday's comforting reassurances from Congressman Bright, AL-02 Democrats may have another spot of good(?) news this morning. State Board of Education member Stephanie Bell (R - District 3) told Doc's Political Parlor: 

I have, however, seriously considered running for the Second Congressional seat since last March when I attended a meeting in Washington, D.C., with the new U.S. Secretary of Education, members of Congress, several other high level federal officials, and 17 other state board of education members from across the country. In recent months, a draft committee, friends, and my family have all encouraged me to run for Congress.

Bell also said she never mentioned the possibility of running for Secretary of State to anyone -- having heard this rumor from a couple of folks on both sides of the aisle, I am curious as to where it got its start.

The prospect of not being able to primary Beth Chapman out of the seat is disappointing, but I don't have any problems with another contender hopping into the already-crowded GOP fray. Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby and businessman/Tea Party activist Rick Barber entered the primary last year. 

Either way, this is yet another helpful reminder that the Democrats still lack a candidate to take on Secretary Chapman in the fall. 

Some brief notes from a Rep. Bobby Bright tele-town hall

by: mediagadfly

Tue Jan 26, 2010 at 20:47:15 PM CST

These are not particularly good, but I did what I could do. I -- or should I say, my Republican swing-voting parents - recieved another tele town hall phone call from Congressman Bobby Bright. So I tried to transcribe it and live tweet it at the same time, which was nearly impossible. Here are my tweets, and my transcript is below the fold. We got the call about halfway through, so I only have a few questions, unfortunately.

The highlights: pro pay-go, pro-Bush tax cuts, pro ... consumer protections? And his dad taught him to go home with the one who brought you to the dance. Onward: 

• Bobby Bright telephone town hall! Live tweeting begins. Someone is talking about home ownership. #alpolitics #al02
• Someone asked what he plans to do in December: "I believe in going home with the one you went to the dance with." #alpolitics
• Caller asks abt no social sec cost of living increase - Bright: "It's not political shenanigans going on, it's how the law is" #alpolitics
• Bright says he sent a letter to Obama and his colleagues today to extend Bush tax cuts two years; wants to make them permanent #alpolitics 
• Deficit question. Caller says deficit is going to 'eat up this country' - Bright agrees. Caller is GOP, also says he'd vote for Bright again
• Bright: "That wasn't solicited." Based on the make-up of our household - I'm betting he's targeting swing-voting Rs 
• (With the phone call that is)
• Bright's hoping for a SOTU freeze on everything BUT military spending. Also keeping fingers cross for return to pay-go 
• Bright mentions a fiscal blue print the blue dogs released this week with ~fifteen steps to deficit reduction~ #alpolitics
• Bright: Thanks very much Mr. Seamon, hope to see you when I'm in heaven. <--- ... is that a common phrase? I'm serious.
• A prattville question! 
• Bobby Bright does not consider himself a politician, he considers himself a public servant. Shockingly, I almost agree. 
• I don't like his convictions, but ... y'know, at least he has them. 
• The basic complaint: not enough tax breaks for people with no dependents. Also, interest rates.
• Bright: I supported the credit card bill of rights last year giving cardholders more leverage against credit companies. #alpolitics 
  

Bobby Bright is Proud of this Number ...

by: mooncat

Fri Jan 15, 2010 at 18:56:19 PM CST

45%

That's how often he voted with his party last year and Bright is so proud of being the "second most independent member of Congress" that he put the story on his website.

Walt Minnick of Idaho was the only Democrat more independent than Bright with a party unity score of 41%.  Where was Mr. "I was elected as an Independent Conservative" Parker Griffith?  He was only the 9th most independent House member, voting with the Democratic party 70% of the time last year.  Bet Griffith doesn't put that number on his website, lol!

Bobby Bright Still Staying a Dem

by: mooncat

Thu Jan 14, 2010 at 10:57:27 AM CST

Rep. Bobby Bright (D, AL-02) is not jumping into a party switch like former fellow Blue Dog Parker Griffith (R, AL-05) -- a leap that may turn out to be from the frying pan into the fire.

Sporting a bright royal-blue tie, Bright told colleagues in the Democrats’ conservative Blue Dog Coalition, “I’m back.”.

Bright’s remark was greeted with applause and “attaboys,” according to Bright.

Bright is a lot more politically savvy than Griffith.  He won the closest Congressional race in the country in 2008, can't spare a single vote if he wants to win reelection in 2010 and knows that switching parties inevitably turns off a lot of voters.  Your old friends can't stand you, your new friends don't want you and the independents say you just proved politicians can't be trusted.

And really, why should Bright switch?  After the initial organizing vote to elect Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, Democratic House leadership has let him vote pretty much as he wants or as will benefit his district.  Could Bright hope for that same freedom as a Republican?  Hell no!  With a much smaller caucus the GOP leadership can't allow any defections from the party line -- Bright has much more freedom as a Democrat.  Griffith did too, but he was too pre-occupied with polls to figure that out.

Rep. Artur Davis comes to Montgomery (updated with Politico mention)

by: mediagadfly

Sun Jan 03, 2010 at 22:35:18 PM CST

Hat tip to Kristopher from TWAY for the heads up.

Via Facebook, the Davis campaign is hosting the grand opening of their Montgomery headquarters on Tuesday the 19th from 5pm to 7pm. I'll be there and I hope some of you will too! I've been waiting for some word about a Montgomery office from the campaign -- even though I know it was a little irrational to start my waiting so early.

Conveniently, Rep. Bobby Bright's Montgomery office is at the same street address. Won't it be fun if they're neighbors? Especially if Bright is going to need as much help turning out black voters in the district as this new New York Times article postulates: 

Political analysts say Mr. Bright is smart to pay attention to the Wiregrass voters. He might not be able to count on such an enormous turnout among black voters in 2010 — even if, as is possible, Representative Artur Davis becomes the first black Democratic nominee for governor in Alabama history — leaving Mr. Bright to depend on people who normally vote Republican, a tall order.

It's a fun read. My favorite quote, by far, is at the tail end - wherein a "cautious" supporter of Bright admits it would be easier to support him openly if he were a Republican. Republicans: against the two-party system at all costs! Even the ones that agree with them. 

[EDIT]: Since I've um, exceeded my two posts in 24 hours limit, I'll share this here. It's still relevent. Rep. Davis is also being featured as one of Politico's 25 Politicians To Watch In 2010.

Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.)

 

Davis, who is vying to become the first African-American governor in the Deep South since Reconstruction, has an amazingly delicate balancing act in front of him. First he must win over skeptics in the Alabama Democratic establishment to capture the party nomination in the June primary. But he must do it without compromising his ability to compete as a black candidate in a conservative state where President Obama and the national Democratic agenda are highly unpopular. If Davis manages the feat, he’ll have rewritten all the rules of Southern politics.

Quick hit: Nate Silver ranks AL Dems as "least valuable" to Dems in Congress

by: mediagadfly

Fri Dec 25, 2009 at 20:31:19 PM CST

Meaning, our Democrats are those most likely to:

1. Vote gainst the political leanings of their district,

2. Vote gainst key Democratic party legislation, and

3. Be less valuable than a Republican in the same seat. 

(Hat tip to Kristopher from The World Around You - I spotted this gem from 538 in Kris' twitter stream.)

Nate Silver explains the last point: 

On the other end of the spectrum are a handful of Democrats who have negative scores. They vote with their party less often than a generic congressman from their district would, even without guaranteeing that the generic congressman is a Democrat.

In other words, these are people who potentially deserve a primary challenge -- on average, dumping them would leave the Democrats better off, even if there's some chance that they'd be replaced by a Republican.

Now, I'm not particularly inclined to agree that any Republican would be more valuable than a Democrat in Bobby Bright's seat -- largely because my personal disagreement with his votes clashes with what I consider valuable pro-Dem PR in my district. I like to think that Rep. Bright, in all his niceness, is doing his small part to convince people Congressional liberals aren't all small-minded filthy heathen baby-killers, and that's always a positive. One must take small victories where zie can. 

In Griffith and Davis' seats, I find Silver's argument holds a smidge less water - I can't imagine that someone who isn't Parker Griffith in that seat would vote against the Dems as consistently as he did. I also imagine that Davis' gubernatorial bid has a lot to do with his votes this year, and his successor will be a little more friendly to the best interests of the district.

In terms of numbers, I think Artur Davis' ranking on Silver's chart is the most fascinating -- Silver puts the district as D+18, and Rep. Davis' voting record this year is a stark contrast to what would generally be considered the (admittedly, Congressional) political security of falling in line with the Democrats on even some, if not all, of this session's major issues in a district that swung that far to the Democrats.

So while you are recovering from your festivities of choice today, think it over, and let me know: what say you?

Also: if you want to help send "more valuable" Alabama Reps to Congress next year, don't forget to donate to AL-03's Josh Segall and this adorable pooch, the Send Parker Griffith Home fund, and the Democratic primary candidate of your choice in AL-07 - check the list in the sidebar. And maybe the state party too? I volunteer there, so.

Rep. Bobby Bright to remain a Democrat

by: mediagadfly

Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 18:06:27 PM CST

Hat tip to Swing State Project on this one. According to Politico:

With Griffith’s announcement Tuesday, eyes immediately turned to his home state freshman counterpart, Rep. Bobby Bright.

 

But Bright told the House Democratic leadership Tuesday night that he planned to stay in the party, according to a senior Democratic aide.

A wise move. As Swing State Project's James points out, Griffith made a ridiculous move by putting himself in a position to be Scozzafava'd out of the race entirely by frustrated conservatives.

In switching parties, Bright avoids a primary challenge against Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby and Tea Party Patriot Rick Barber. Both are keen on flexing their conservative bona fides - helped along by the NRCC, who are disappointed Bright has been "giving Obama decent grades on his handling of the [healthcare] debate" and in his lack of interest in defeating Rep. Pelosi as House Speaker.

Say what you will about Rep. Bobby Bright - and I certainly have my fair share of disagreements with his voting record - but he's had the decency to conduct himself with decorum and respect for his more liberal colleagues. Parker Griffith's snide remarks about Speaker Nancy Pelosi won't be missed.

I sent a letter to Congressman Bright earlier today expressing my support for what he's done as a Democrat, and if you're in AL-02, I'd encourage you to do the same - even if you're only glad he's not Jay Love.

My letter to Bright below the fold. 

Rep. Bobby Bright tele-town hall

by: mediagadfly

Tue Nov 17, 2009 at 21:13:28 PM CST

I live in Prattville and I am, on very rare occassions, not all that troubled with calling Bobby Bright my Congressman.

In his defense, he voted to deny Presidents (former, sitting, and their families) the power to block release of public White House records. On the other hand, he's voted against almost every major piece of legislation out of Congress (including the stimulus package and health care, though he was totes for the Stupak amendment.)

The point is: tonight my house got a phone call to join one of his tele-town halls (evidently he's held eight so far; this is my first) and for your sake, I live tweeted the whole thing.

THE HIGHLIGHTS: 

Rep. Bright loves small businesses, ten thousand percent of the respondents to his magical phone poll don't support the health care bill, and he says no to a lot of things. (I missed this, but at one point he said he 'wished they would come up with something he didn't have to say no to.' I cried on the inside.)

 Enjoy.

By The Grace of God Go I Redux

by: Redeye

Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 19:43:35 PM CST

How would you feel if you, or someone you loved, was diagnosed with cancer then fired from their job because "they were obviously unable to perform their duties"?  Never mind they aren't able to perform their duties because they are undergoing chemo therepy.  Never mind  they won't have health insurance because it goes with the job.  Never mind they can't afford the cobra payments to maintain their insurance because they have no job.  Never mind they can't get health insurance because they have a pre-existing condidtion. Never mind their former employer has sentenced them to death.

It ought to be against the law for employers to fire people because they get sick.  It ought to be against the law for health insurance companies to cancel your insurance or refuse to insure you because you get sick.  Thanks to the passage of the affordable health choices act last night, these actions are against the law will be against the law if the legislation passes both houses and is signed by the President.

Bright on Health Care Reform

by: mooncat

Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 13:05:41 PM CST

Bobby Bright, writing in the Montgomery Advertiser:

My vote against H.R. 3962 was not a rejection of health care reform; it was a rejection of a bill I believe fell short on some of the goals agreed upon by members of both parties and the president. In his address to a joint session of Congress, President Obama correctly stated that the number one problem our health care system faces is its unsustainable cost. We cannot expect to fully address our health care crisis unless we deal with the rising cost burdens on the federal government.

Nice to know he isn't against health care reform -- that's a good indication that public opinion is pro-reform, even in AL-02.  He complains about the cost but has to go out to 2019 to find increases and also admits that the status quo is untenable -- I think I heard that GDP and health care costs would be equal in 2080 if we do nothing.

The bill mandates coverage for both individuals and small businesses, leaving Americans with no choice about whether they even want health insurance. We are a fiercely independent people and are right to be suspicious whenever the government mandates anything. People should be able to choose -- or not choose -- the type or amount of health insurance they want to have without the government's involvement in that decision.

This is the most interesting paragraph in the piece, imho, because it does touch on the libertarian feeling that is and always has been strong in the South.  What argument would/do you use with your friends and family who feel this way?

Without Blue Dogs HCR Would Have Failed: No Thanks to Ours

by: gradyw

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 00:54:51 AM CST

This only happened with 53% of the Blue Dog Coalition

Missing from this list are  Blue Dogs Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith. They along with Artur Davis can thank these members for providing them cover.

listed below

Call Blue Dog Congressmen ASAP - Stupak Abortion Amendment to Get Vote

by: mooncat

Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 10:29:18 AM CST

They're about to throw women under the health care bus.  The Blue Dogs are allying with the Republican bloc to effectively ban insurance coverage of abortion.  Griffith and Bright are likely "yes" votes for this amendment -- Bright signed a letter endorsing Stupak's amendment months ago.  More recently, both Bright and Griffith signed a letter asking for a vote to strike abortion funding.  Will it be the poison pill that kills the entire health care reform effort?  David Dayen at FDL writes:

This is an enormous bet, and not a well-designed one either, in my view. The Democratic Party will tomorrow give a minority of their caucus an opportunity to amend a large health care bill that would effectively ban abortion services coverage in the individual and small group insurance market, essentially telling private insurance companies what they cannot cover.

Lori Montgomery for the WaPo:

The deal clears the way for the dozens of Democratic lawmakers who oppose abortion to lend their support to the health care package, the most dramatic expansion of health coverage in more than 40 years. It also satisfies the demands of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, which had threatened to oppose the House bill.

If the amendment from Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) passes, said Richard Doerflinger, associate director of the bishops conference, "we become enthusiastic advocates for moving forward with health care reform."

The amendment is expected to pass with the combined support of more than 40 anti-abortion Democrats and virtually every House Republican. That likelihood meant that leaders of the much larger group of Democrats who support abortion rights were not happy to learn of the deal.

"There will be no abortion, not just with public funds, but with private funds under the public option, and that's not acceptable," said Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.).

Bright is probably a dead certain vote in favor of this amendment and Griffith is very likely to vote for it unless he receives calls from many, many outraged constituents.  So, if you're a woman in AL-05 (North Alabama) please pick up the phone and call Parker Griffith's office and tell him you think the Stupak amendment goes too far, meddling with what private insurers can cover and ask him to please vote against that amendment. You might also ask what he would have done without the votes of women on November 4, 2008.  Then hand the phone to your spouse or significant other and have them make the same call.  

It's important to call Bobby Bright and our other Congressmen as well, but I think Parker Griffith is the most persuadable of our Blue Dogs so he's the highest priority. 

Alabama Blue Dogs Take Note: Two of Your Pack Now Support the Public Option

by: countrycat

Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:50:00 AM CDT

Blue Dogs Jane Harmon and Loretta Sanchez announced last week that they are now supporting the inclusion of a robust public option in health care reform.

Far from being an option of last resort or a government-funded takeover of the country's health care system, we see the public option as a critical market mechanism that will drive down costs, foster competition and expand Americans' insurance choices.

This is not just smart health care policy, it is smart economic policy.

They're just now figuring that out?  Welcome to the "reality-based community!"

They also note that, in their districts, there are "more than 290,000 uninsured people."  But what really pushed them off the fence was a personal experience: 

In August it happened to Rep. Harman's 27-year-old son, who was dropped from his insurance after suffering a torn eardrum.

So is that what it takes?  A close family member has to actually get dropped or turned down?  What about all those constituent tales of woe?

In Alabama, that uninsured number is 1.2 million people!

About 1.2 million Alabamians, mostly from working families, were uninsured at some point during 2007 and 2008, according to a report released today by the health consumer organization Families USA.

Would we be seeing more support from our Democratic representatives - Parker Griffith, Bobby Bright, and Artur Davis - if one of their family members were part of that group?

I understand the power of personal stories and personal connections.  But Rep. Harmon, it shouldn't have taken an incident with your son to make you understand the situation that millions of Americans deal with every day. Rep. Griffith, Davis, and Bright.... same with you guys. 

We're sharing these stories and personal experiences now and have been all year.  Are you listening?

Note: Congressman Davis is not a member of the Blue Dogs.  He offers a different reason for opposing the House bill.  But the result is the same even if he's not talking ugly about Speaker Pelosi.

Bobby Bright (D, AL-02) Will Remain a Democrat

by: mooncat

Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 22:04:15 PM CDT

Well, DUH!!

Why on earth would he switch parties?  He gets to vote against his party leadership as often as he likes and the DCCC is going to help him get re-elected.  Where else could Bobby Bright get a deal like that?  Not from the GOP for darned sure.  Bright is sitting pretty in the Democratic majority, as is Parker Griffith in AL-05.

What if a Republican Challenged One of Our Blue Dogs -- From the RIGHT??

by: mooncat

Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 22:45:20 PM CDT

Would a moderate/progressive Republican have a better shot against Blue Dogs Bobby Bright or Parker Griffith than a hard line conservative GOPper?  Down with Tyranny poses the question ...

One of the problems in tackling these elements is that invariably their Republican opponents are substantially worse than they are! Republicans running against the most right wing Democrats-- from Chris Carney in Pennsylvania and Dan Boren in Oklahoma to Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith in Alabama-- try attacking them as too liberal! We've often wondered what we would do if we found an actual progressive Republican running against a conservative Democrat.

... and then notes that a pro-choice, pro-gay rights Republican is in a three way special election with a conservaDem and an even more conservative Republican in New York.

What would happen in Alabama?  The moderate Republican could almost certainly count on the GOP base -- they'll vote for anyone with an "R" after their name.  How moderate would a Republican have to be to pick up enough independents and Democrats to beat Bright or Griffith?  Would "I would have voted for the Ledbetter Fair Pay Act" do the trick?  The government has no place between a woman and her doctor?  Health care is a right and everyone ought to have a choice of insurance provider, not just BCBS? 

Have our Blue Dogs moved so far right that they are vulnerable to a left leaning Republican -- if such an animal exists in Alabama? 

Rep. Bobby Bright prime GOP target in 2010 elections

by: mediagadfly

Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 19:29:50 PM CDT

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Andy Sere hinted, Republicans will go after Bright for his "sharp left turn toward Obama's reckless agenda."

"After just eight months in Congress, [Bright] has lost touch with everyday Alabamians," Sere said.

Blue Dog Parker Griffith Makes Fifty Richest List

by: mooncat

Tue Sep 15, 2009 at 07:54:57 AM CDT

Face it, the rich are different when it comes to getting elected -- they aren't subject to spending limits on their own money!

From the Department of Missed Opportunities: In case your buyer's remorse over electing Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright isn't bad enough yet ...

Women lawmakers outperform men

... on average, women in Congress introduce more bills, attract more co-sponsors and bring home more money for their districts than their male counterparts do.

Just imagine the difference if Cheryl Sabel and Susan Parker were representing AL-02 and AL-05 in Congress today.  

Parker Griffith, the Gift that Keeps on Giving ... to the NRCC!

by: mooncat

Tue Sep 01, 2009 at 14:37:32 PM CDT

Nice work Congressman. You're enabling Republican attacks on your fellow Congressional Democrats, even those from your own state. No regrets, no explanation, no clarification of the remarks from you or your office to date.

A few days ago on Facebook, folks were saying it's time to park Parker. That could catch on.

Griffith's Pelosi Slam Used in Ad Against Fellow Dem. Bobby Bright

by: mooncat

Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 15:31:49 PM CDT

Divide and conquer. It's an age old trick with a proven track record. Out of power Republicans would like to use it to recapture some of the seats they've lost in the last few cycles.

Political genius Loose cannon Parker Griffith (D, AL-05) has been trash talking the House leadership and helping the GOP make their campaign ads in the process. I'm sure Bobby Bright appreciates Griffith's generosity. The NRCC couldn't be happier if they'd been writing the script for PG.

I'm sorry, but I can't give a penny to the DCCC as long as Griffith is on their Frontline program. He's more valuable to the Republicans than to Democrats at this point.