| Barack Obama has moved past Hillary Clinton in the latest Capital Survey Research Center poll of Alabama voters, completed between Jan. 23rd and 29th. The poll shows Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, leading U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, of New York, 40 percent to 35 percent in the Democratic primary. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, of North Carolina, who has dropped out of the race, was a distant third at 9 percent.
Undecided got 16% and the margin of error is +/- 5%, so Obama and Clinton are effectively tied. Still, this represents noticeable movement toward Obama (see graph here) since the Jan. 8-10 survey (C-34%, O-36%, E-9%, U-21%) and the Dec. 12-17 survey (C-40%, O-25%, E-10%, U-21%). At least some of that movement is because black voters are breaking away from Clinton and toward Obama in recent weeks. Potential black voters have surged to Obama's side, according to a poll by Capital Survey Research Center, the polling arm of the Alabama Education Association. Their latest poll, which includes data through Tuesday night, shows Obama with 68 percent of the vote among likely black voters, up from 54 percent three weeks ago and more than double the 26 percent of likely black voters who said a year ago they would support Obama.
Don't take any of these polls to the bank. As we've seen, the pollsters are often wrong and there are still a lot of undecideds out there -- more than the latest poll indicates since many Edwards supporters are still deciding how they will vote. And just a couple of days ago Rep. Artur Davis pointed out that pollsters are probably screening out some people who intend to vote on Feb. 5th: "Their first question is, 'Did you vote in the presidential primary in your state in the last cycle?'," Davis said. "That question wipes out a lot of people who were new voters, who are attracted to Obama but weren't attracted to the previous contests." He said that is particularly true in Alabama, where in the later June 1, 2004, primary, voters got to decide between candidates John Kerry and Lyndon LaRouche.
The 2008 Democratic Primary in Alabama is much more exciting than the one 4 years ago when 164,021 people cast their vote for John Kerry, 38,223 for uncommitted and less than 10,000 each for Dennis Kucinich and Lyndon Larouche. Democratic turnout has been breaking records in other states and we should expect to see a big increase in Alabama too. |
