Finally! A New Poll in the Alabama Governor's Race.

He mentioned this on Tuesday (4.00 / 2)

I'm glad they finally released the numbers, I was starting to get antsy! These are some fun numbers ... especially the first one. I can't wait to see the full numbers.

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by: mediagadfly @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 15:13:03 PM UTC

Yes, finally! (4.00 / 1)

We knew a poll had been in the field and I've been consumed with curiousity about the results.

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."  - John Kenneth Galbraith

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by: countrycat @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 15:19:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My first post (4.00 / 1)

said that the info was from a press release.  But when I went back and looked at it again, that was wrong!

The campaign got some great news from our pollster this week, and we're releasing it to you first.

"you" being anyone who signed up to be on Davis' email list, not me personally!

So I fixed it!  Just in case anyone noticed that original post changed....

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."  - John Kenneth Galbraith

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by: countrycat @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 16:26:02 PM UTC

I'm really anxious to see the raw data too. (0.00 / 0)

It's going to be interesting to see who they polled and how they were selected.  That is IF the raw data is released.  I'm njot going to hold my breath but I'll keep hope alive.

Artur Davis' reform agenda enjoys widespread support from who(m)?

Who exactly are the independent universe that perfers Davis over a generic democrat?  Why no poll with a specific democrat since he has an oppenent?  I'd love to see the results of a poll asking democrats who they perfer Davis or Sparks, but that's just me.

In the meantime let's look at the raw date we have instead of the raw data we wish we had.  Let's look at the polling pollsters client list.

By progressive groups.

By State

By Associations

The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dreams shall never die.~Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D. MA)

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by: Redeye @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 17:20:31 PM UTC

Interesting that Davis' favorables have gone up (4.00 / 1)

He's taken a lot of flak from some on the left for his vote against the House health care bill.  That doesn't seem to have hurt with the broader electorate.  The email also said, "Rep. Davis continues to maintain a strong lead over Ron Sparks in spite of a constant negative campaign. He leads his primary opponent in every region ..."

The last poll I remember hearing about was an AEA one that showed Sparks trailing Davis by fairly large double digits.  He's been polling far behind Davis for over 6 months and needs some kind of game changer to shake those numbers loose.  Can't wait for the financial reports.

Work harder and work smarter!

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by: mooncat @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 17:31:27 PM UTC

The financial reports (4.00 / 1)

will be for political junkies what Christmas morning is to 5 yera olds.

I would so love to see all the polling data from this, but every campaign keeps that locked in a safe with a three-headed dog in front of it for extra security.   One of the best parts of the DailyKos polls are the crosstabs.

I'd most want to see the voter breakdown by age, race, and sex.   Yeah, I know.  I basically want to see it all!

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."  - John Kenneth Galbraith

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by: countrycat @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 17:42:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Region (4.00 / 1)

Danny noted that Bradley Byrne's recent miniscule ad buy included Mobile.  Why is he running ads on his home turf?

Work harder and work smarter!

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by: mooncat @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 17:48:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I remember that... (4.00 / 1)

shoring up support for some reason?

Mobile politics is looking even more interesting this week now that Senator Vivian Figures has drawn at least one primary opponent.  I have a post going up about that one later today.

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."  - John Kenneth Galbraith

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by: countrycat @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 18:09:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And what a primary opponent it is! (4.00 / 1)

My co-blogger Del lives in Figures' district and wrote this yesterday.

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by: Kathy @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 19:33:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nice Piece (4.00 / 2)

Truly great line in the comments:

this battle would be fought not on the airwaves but in the parking lots of churches and community centers and 75% of Mobile will never know about it

all I can say is "Yep"

"If guns kept America safe, then America would surely be the safest country in the whole world." - Rep. Carolyn Maloney

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by: mpmarus @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 20:59:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably to lock it down (4.00 / 2)

I imagine Byrne's roadmap to the nomination involves winning handily in Mobile County, as well as other metropolitan areas in the state.  I think he would run ads there this early to make sure the people in Mobile know he is running so that he can lock them into supporting him rather than another candidate.  If James makes Mobile competitive, that diminishes Byrne's chances at the nomination.

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by: csduke @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 22:28:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting indeed. (0.00 / 0)

Davis releases a poll that says his favorable are up with the *ahem* broader electable (who the heck...) inspite of his vote against health care reform.

I guess it depends on who the "broader electorate" IS.  My guess it's who ever the polling pollsters say it is.  But that's just me.

Do you recall if the AEA poll was conducted before our after Davis voted against health care reform and in favor of the Stupak amendment? 

The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dreams shall never die.~Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D. MA)

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by: Redeye @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 21:20:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AEA poll (4.00 / 2)

If you are referring to the AEA poll, I believe that came out last August.  There was also a Public Policy Polling poll issued last June.  And here is the Anzalone-Liszt poll released last January (2009).

The Anzalone-Liszt is the first poll I've seen in 2010.   Though they are internal numbers (and we won't see the crosstabs), Anzalone-Liszt is highly respected and and been successful in getting a number of Democrats elected in the South (in other words, their numbers are probably fairly accurate).

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by: csduke @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 22:49:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Anzalone-Liszt is highly repsected (0.00 / 0)

and they have a lot of conservadem and conservative leaning organizations and associations for clients. 

How has Anzalone-Liszt been successful in getting a number of Democrats elected in south?  In other words how can the predict the outcome of an election before the votes are cast and counted?

The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dreams shall never die.~Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D. MA)

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by: Redeye @ Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 23:51:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Opinion polling is both an art and a science (4.00 / 1)

Based on their recent track record (and these things change with time) it seems Anzalone-Liszt has successfully combined the science and the artist's touch to predict mood and behavior of the electorate.  I think of it as having their finger on the pulse of the electorate; a fancy way to say their voter models are good and they're asking the right questions.

You might want to read The Art of Election Polling to familiarize yourself with how polling works since you seem to have a lot of questions about it.

Work harder and work smarter!

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by: mooncat @ Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 00:35:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

oh please (4.00 / 2)

and "a lot of" them are NOT.

Gee... how dare they work for:

• Deborah Bell Paseur
• Planned Parenthood
• NEA
• Sierra Club
• Senator Sheldon Whitehouse
• Gay & Lesbian Leadership Institute
• Democratic Governor's Association
• WXPN Public Radio
• Americans United for Change
  

They're a polling outfit that works for Democrats, progressive & environmental organizations, and non-profits.

Yes, they work for some Democrats who are more conservative than many at LIA, but so what?  They're still Democrats. That's how the political polling/consulting business works.

What you won't find on their list of clients is Tom DeLay, the RCCC, Club for Growth, etc. etc.  Thank heavens, because these guys appear to be on the ball. 

John has helped build a firm that helped elect Barack Obama as President and now represents two U.S. Senators, eighteen U.S. Congressmen and dozens of other statewide and local elected officials in over twenty states. In 2006, Anzalone Liszt Research beat more incumbent Republicans (five) than any other polling firm in the nation.  He has regularly worked with the DCCC, DSCC and the DGA.

I'd much rather have them on our side as providing advice to Karl Rove & co.....

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."  - John Kenneth Galbraith

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by: countrycat @ Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 00:39:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again, look through their list of candidates (4.00 / 1)

In the past couple of election cycles, Anzalone Liszt has been one of the big winners in advising Democratic candidates to victories.  Look again at their candidate list.  Here are some of their highlights:

• Barack Obama in the Presidential race, especially helping him pick up Virginia and North Carolina
• Kay Hagan to a win in North Carolina against incumbent Libby Dole.
• In Alabama, they helped Bobby Bright to a win (need I remind you, in a district that had not elected a Democrat since 1964); add to that Josh Segall to a near win (they also helped Griffith, but won't anymore)
• A handful of other House candidates to victories, defeating Republican incumbents.

At this point, this particular firm has been on their game in developing accurate voting models and advising candidates to electoral victories.  They might not take clients that fit your sense of purity, but they help Democrats win.  Through their success in helping elect Democrats, especially a number in Southern districts, they have developed a reputation of having a good sense of the electorate.

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by: csduke @ Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 00:56:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah they have a few progressives thrown in for flavor (0.00 / 0)

I mean balance, but the majority are conservative and conservative leaning IMHO.

I'll admit to being very cynical of polls and polling pollsters who poll them, and candidate who relase whem without raw data, because candidate tend to use them to manipulate public opinion.  I prefer the real polls which take place at the voting booth on election day, but that's just me.

Davis released a favorable poll by his hired guns, I mean polling firm. with no raw data.   I guess Sparks will release a  favorable poll next, followed by Byrne, Moore et.al. 

Carry on.

 

The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dreams shall never die.~Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D. MA)

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by: Redeye @ Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 14:06:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]