( - promoted by mooncat)
Without question, Artur Davis is the "star" candidate of this race. He has the star power. He mesmorizes people with his oratory. He's drawn big out of state money and big in-state endorsements like Beasley and polls seem to suggest that he is the frontrunner A similar situation occurred in the 2002 Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Primary. One campaign had the money and the star power. The other campaign had little money but had the support from almost all of the Florida Democratic Party organization outside of South Florida. You of course, know what happened. Political novice Bill McBride defeated Janet Reno in both the primary and the runoff. He would go on to lose in the fall but that election set the stage for his wife Alex Sink to be elected to statewide office in 2006. A very good parallel can be drawn to Alabama. Davis has the starpower. He has the big money. He's getting the national recognition. But, when it comes to the state organizations? Well, a majority of the state's Democratic sheriffs have come out for Sparks. Far more local officials have come out for Sparks than Davis. If you canvassed individual county organizations, you'd probably find more support for Sparks than Davis even with Davis's money advantage. And one interesting thing about Florida. There are still a number of counties in Florida where Republicans usually get over 40% of the vote to even win in most elections, but where local offices are all Democratic and so all voters register as Democratic to have a franchise there (which is different from our non-registration system). Now, just take a guess who won those counties? Bill McBride. And it held true in both black counties and white counties. You thought the black counties, out of rememberance of Clinton, would have went for Reno, but they all carried for McBride. Even Leon County, well reputed as a social liberal haven where Reno should have done very well, saw McBride simply crush her by margins of devastating proportions. We now are seeing an election where all the star power and money have lined up behind one candidate while the party machinery is behind another. We saw how that worked in Florida in 2002. Now, there are differences in this election, presence of a black candidate not the least of them, but it is a fallacy to suggest that the more well-funded candidate with national acclaim is automatically gonna just cruise to victory. It should be a wakeup call to Davis. To win the primary, he's going to have to do well in places like Lawrence County. He'll have to hold Sparks to under 80% in places like Lawrence. Can he do it? That is the question |
