I think they might be. I think at the beginning of this year the ADP took the big election seriously and really wanted to win it. Since then there have been several bad defeats (though Laura Hall was all race and nothing else), convictions, retirements (including Hammett's seat which is in a county where people actually do vote in the Republican primary) and deaths. In particular, the results from the special in Keahey's district were outright disturbing.
It also needs to be considered that the party really is Folsom's party. Why would Folsom bow out this year? Well, if one believes what the economists say Alabama's economy will still be bad in 2012-2013. If Folsom had run and won that of course would fall on him and he'd be a one termer. However, if a Republican is elected this year then in 2014 they'd be the ones who would have presided over the state during bad economic times. Ask Fob James circa 1982 about how presiding over the state when the economy is bad bodes for re-election prospects.
Also, all indications from the state GOP are that they're going to pour more money into the legislative campaign than they usually do. Usually, Democratic money concentrates primarily at the legislative and local level while Republicans go for federal and statewide races. I see that ending this year. Republicans know that for the first time since the 1960s there is a Democratic president who many Alabama whites simply find unacceptable. The fact that the majority of our job losses came after the election means that the average Alabama white is more likely to blame Obama than Bush and so their strategy in every race against a white incumbent/challenger to tie them to Obama. In the race for Keahey's old seat they managed to run an ad for their political unknown opponent tying Elaine Beech to Pelosi and Obama. It almost worked.
That will be their strategy. Running on corruption and Obama. Now, they've tried similar strategies in the past but this time they'll come with a lot more money. I think Turnham, Hubbert and Folsom see this and this is why I think Folsom isn't running. I also think it's interesting that Davis is raising just enough money to keep donors from going with Sparks (or to keep someone else from coming in) but, in my estimation, not enough to compete with the millions that Byrne will be able to raise in Mobile alone from the people who want a Mobile governor for the sake of a Mobile governor (for reference: look at the campaign histories of Graddick, Siegelman, Pryor, Tyson and others) and I'm also convinced that Davis will have a hard time raising money in the general. I'm convinced that Alabama remains Alabama and that while it will happen, 2010 certainly won't be that year. I see no reason to not continue believing that. I believe that Turnham and Hubbert believe this as well.
We know what the state party fears. They fear that Artur Davis on the ballot combined with Obama's unpopularity in the state might drive normally Democratic voters in North Alabama to vote Republican downticket. I think that's Parker Griffith's fear too. That's why Griffith has been more of a maverick than Bright. Bright can't piss off black voters and survive a primary. Griffith's primary will be almost entirely white outside of Huntsville and will consist of 80% of those who cast a vote in June meaning that every black in Huntsville can vote against him and he can still win the primary on white votes.
I believe the state party wants Davis to lose to some kind of white candidate in June and already you see big black heavyweight after big black heavyweight coming out for Sparks in a deliberate attempt to try and prevent any "racial pride" momentum for Davis the way it worked for Obama. It remains to be seen if it's successful but I remain unconvinced that the party views the mansion as priority # 1. Hubbard has made it clear that he intends to direct more resources into the legislature than ever before. I think he'll direct those resources to those campaigns at the expense of challengers to Bright & Griffith and truthfully, it appears as if they're already ceding the Lt. Governor's office to Folsom.
2010 is going to be all about the legislature. A narrow Republican majority (all that's really possible unless complete catastrophe occurs) would lead to maps that would create a permanently 60% or more Republican legislature and which would lead to conversion of many of the county courthouse rings, similar to what happened in Georgia, South Carolina, Texas and Florida when they took over in those states. The state party knows it and I think that Turnham and Co feel like they are looking at the barrel of a gun. However, if Democrats control the legislature those districts will be drawn to ensure that the rural oriented power structure of the Alabama Democratic Party continues controlling the state till at least 2022.
On the Republican side I feel that Hubbard, Riley, etc view Obama as some kind of golden ticket from God and want to do all they can to capitalize on him. I also think they view 2010 as the absolute best chance they have to take the legislature and I agree. If they can't take it in 2010 then they'll never take the legislature or courthouses because 2010 is looking like the most favorable election for Alabama Republicans ever. .
So I am starting to wonder if the state party has already decided, be it Davis/Sparks/whomever, that they're willing to take a pass on the mansion in exchange for holding the House and Senate.
However, interestingly, a Republican takeover might actually be the best thing for urban liberal style politics in Alabama. If the rural county rings switched parties then that would bring many more religious rightists into the state GOP and that might have the effect of driving many of the moderate Byrne style Republicans (as well as the outright socially liberal Republicans that exist in places like Mountain Brook) into the Democratic Party sort of how the Rockefeller Republicans all became corporate Democrats.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out but I'll say now on this site what I've said before. 2010 will probably be one of the most important elections in Alabama history and recent developments only strengthen that view
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